Citation
1118
UNCLASSIFIED
PTQ0189
RELEASED IN FULL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
PTQ0189
KIGALI 02766 291146Z
INFO LOG-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 ADS-00 ONY-00 SSO-00
E78BE3 291305Z /22
O 291139Z AUG 95
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1246
CONFIDENTIALKIGALI 002766
STADIS -- FOR AF ONLY
E.O. 12356: 20 YEARS
TAGS: PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: WHAT THE RESHUFFLE MEANS
1. C -- ENTIRE TEXT.
2. THESE ARE INITIAL OBSERVATIONS, INITIALLY DRAFTED BY
THE DCM, WHICH I HAVE REVIEWED AND AMENDED. WE DO NOT
HAVE ALL THE BACKGROUND ON THE RESHUFFLE. I WILL BE
SEEING VICE PRESIDENT KAGAME AT 1100 HRS TOMORROW 8/30
AND WILL HOPEFULLY DERIVE THEREFROM A LARGER PICTURE OF
WHAT HAPPENED AND WHY. WE WILL NOT KNOW WHAT THE
RESHUFFLE MEANS UNTIL THE RESHUFFLE IS COMPLETE AND A NEW
GOVERNMENT FORMED. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHO
MIGHT FILL ANY VACANT POSITIONS. WHETHER THAT
GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES ARE ONES WE CAN SUPPORT CAN ONLY BE
DETERMINED AFTER IT SETS FORTH ITS PROGRAM. NONETHELESS,
HERE ARE SOME TENTATIVE CONCLUSIONS.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
KIGALI 02766 291146Z
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: JOHN L MILLS
DATE/CASE ID: 14 MAY 2007 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
/001W
UNCLASSIFIED
3. THE RPF RESHUFFLED THE GOVERNMENT AUGUST 28 IN
RESPONSE TO A FEELING OF FRUSTRATION THAT THEIR AGENDA OF
JUSTICE AND NATIONAL UNITY HAD NOT MADE MORE PROGRESS IN
THE FIRST YEAR OF THE "GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY."
THEIR ACTION WAS INFLUENCED BY THE FOLLOWING ELEMENTS:
--THEIR PERCEPTION THAT THEY HAVE LOST ONE FULL YEAR OF
THE FIVE-YEAR TRANSITION PERIOD THEY ADOPTED A YEAR AGO.
--THEIR FRUSTRATION THAT THE POLICIES PUT FORWARD AND
DEFENDED BY THE PRIME MINISTER, JUSTICE MINISTER AND
INTERIOR MINISTER DID NOT ACCORD WITH THEIR VISION OF
WHAT WAS NECESSARY TO EFFECT CHANGE IN RWANDAN
GOVERNANCE, BUT RATHER RESULTED IN GRIDLOCK WHICH BLOCKED
PROGRESS ON PRISONS, JUSTICE, REPATRIATION.
--THE VISIT OF UN SYG BOUTROS-GHALI, WHO BERATED THE GOR
FOR NOT UNDERSTANDING ITS ISOLATION IN INTERNATIONAL
PERCEPTIONS.
--THE VISITS OF GERMAN FONMIN KINKEL AND AFRICA DIRECTOR
GANS, WHO BEAT UP ON THE GOR OVER PRISONS AND JUSTICE.
--THE FORCED REPATRIATION OF RWANDAN REFUGEES BY THE FAZ,
AND RESULTANT DEMONSTRATION OF THEIR OWN CAPACITY TO
HANDLE THE REFUGEE RETURN. (THE FAZ, HOWEVER
UNCONVENTIONAL THEIR TACTICS, BROUGHT MORE REFUGEES BACK
TO RWANDA IN FIVE DAYS THAN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S
INDUCEMENTS HAVE ATTRACTED IN MONTHS).
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
KIGALI 02766 291146Z
--INCREASING SIGNS OF ETHNIC HUTU POLITICAL AMBITIONS
BOTH IN THE CAMPS AND IN RWANDA WHICH THREATEN THE
PROSPECT OF RPF POLITICAL DOMINANCE.
--THE RPF'S UNWAVERING COMMITMENT TO CHANGE IN RWANDA,
AND THEIR BELIEF THAT A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR'S GENOCIDE
CAN ONLY BE AVOIDED THROUGH FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE. RPF
INTELLECTUALS ARE INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED BY WHAT THEY
PERCEIVE TO BE A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING THAT RWANDA MUST
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
BE A FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT PLACE IN THE FUTURE.
4. ESSENTIALLY, THE RPF BELIEVES IT CAN DO A BETTER JOB
IF THE GOVERNMENT IS MORE COHESIVE AND ACTION-ORIENTED
THAN IT HAS BEEN SO FAR AND THAT CONTINUED INACTION IS
UNACCEPTABLE IN THE FACE OF THE MOUNTING INTERNATIONAL
CRITICISM AND THE HUMANITARIAN EMERGENCY AND SECURITY
PRESSURE LOOMING ON THE ZAIRIAN FRONTIER. THE RPF IS A
PRAGMATIC, RESULTS-ORIENTED, PARAMILITARY ORGANIZATION
AND IT BELIEVES THAT IT MUST ESTABLISH A NEW ORDER IN
RWANDA.
5. THE GOVERNMENT WHICH WE WERE TRYING TO ASSIST HAS BEEN
DISSOLVED. THIS ACTION WAS TAKEN IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
PROCEDURES OUTLINED IN RWANDA'S FUNDAMENTAL LAW (THE
ARUSHA ACCORD). WE ARE TOLD THAT THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL
BE FORMED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SAME FUNDAMENTAL LAW.
WHETHER THE REMOVAL OF THE PRIME MINISTER DESIGNATED IN
THAT FUNDAMENTAL LAW UNDERMINES THE LEGITIMACY OF THE
ACTION IS A QUESTION FOR INTERNATIONAL LAWYERS. THE REAL
QUBSTION FOR THE UNITED STATES IS WHETHER THE NEW
GOVERNMENT ASCRIBES TO GOALS AND ACTIONS THAT WILL BRING
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04
KIGALI 02766 291146Z
JUSTICE TO ALL RWANDANS, BRING REFUGEES HOME IN SECURITY
AND CONSTRUCT A NEW RWANDA UNDER THE RULE OF LAW, IN
OTHER WORDS, GOALS AND ACTIONS WE CAN SUPPORT.
6. RECOMMENDATION: WAIT AND SEE, BUT TELL THE RWANDAN
LEADERS PRIVATELY THAT WE ARE WATCHING HARD AND WILL HOLD
THEM TO THE PRINCIPLES SET FORTH IN GENEVA AND REAFFIRMED
AT THE MID-COURSE REVIEW WHICH SET THE BASIS OF OUR
PARTNERSHIP. WE SHOULD INCREASE OUR EFFORTS TO GET THE
RWANDANS AND ZAIRIANS TALKING TO EACH OTHER. PUBLICLY,
OUR COMMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE OBSERVATION THAT THE
RESHUFFLE WAS CARRIED OUT IN ACCORDANCE WITH RWANDA'S
FUNDAMENTAL LAW, AND THAT WE EXPECT THE NEW GOVERNMENT TO
MOVE QUICKLY ON A PROGRAM OF JUSTICE, NATIONAL
RECONSTRUCTION, SAFE RETURN OF REFUGEES AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF HUMAN RIGHTS UNDER A RULE OF LAW.
RAWSON
UNCLASSIFIED
