Résumé
During a meeting with the RPF representative in Paris on April 15, the Quai urged an end to the RPF
offensive as the only way to end ethnic strife. The French also argued that the RPF might be able to seize power in Kigali but it will not be able to govern Rwanda.
Citation
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RELEASED IN PART
Bl, 1.4(B), 1.4(D)
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3E813A 211230Z /38
O 211137Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3558
INFO AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM IMMEDIATE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BANGUI
AMEMBASSY COTONOU
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/AF//
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CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 10962
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, UN, FR, BY, RW
SUBJECT: WGRWOL: FRENCH PESSIMISM ON RWANDA
REF:
E366
UNCLASSIFIED
A) STATE 104017 B) STATE 98062 C) STATE 99209
C) PERLOW-AISTON TELECON, 2-19 D) STATE 105064
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2.
SUMMARY: WE MET WITH THE ELYSEE AFRICA COUNSELOR.
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: ARCHIE M BOLSTER
CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL REASON: 1.4(B), 1.4(D)
DECLASSIFY At 1Pa: 21 APR 2016
DATE/CASE ID: 06 MAY 2011 201005065
UNCLASSIFIED
CIAE-00
EUR-01
10-16
NSAE-00
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BRUNO DELAYE AND WITH QUAI DESK OFFICER FOR ZAIRE,
JEAN-ULRIC CILLARD ON APRIL 20 TO CONVEY THE POINTS IN
REFS (B) AND (C) CONCERNING USG POLICY IN RNANIak. THE
GOF IS VERY PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE ABILITY AND
WILLINGNESS OF THE RPF AND RWANDAN MILITARY LEADERS TO
REACH A CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
GOF AGREES THAT THE ONLY BASIS FOR POLITICAL DISCUSSION
IN RWANDA REMAINS THE PRINCIPLES ESTABLISHED IN THE
ARUSHA ACCORDS AND HAS ENCOURAGED THE TANZANIANS TO
PURSUE THEIR EFFORTS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VASTLY
CHANGED CIRCUMSTANCES IN RWANDA, THE GOF HAS LITTLE
FAITH THAT NEW TALKS WILL LEAD TO POSITIVE RESULTS
QUICKLY. END SUMMARY.
3. DURING APRIL 20 TALKS ON RWANDA WITH BRUNO DELAYE,
AFRICAN AFFAIRS ADVISOR AT THE ELYSEE AND JEAN-ULRIC
CILLARD AT THE QUAI AND PRESENTED THE POINTS IN REFS
(B) AND (C) ON U.S. POLICY IN RWANDA. ALTHOUGH BOTH
INTERLOCUTORS EXPRESSED GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OUR
VIEWS, IT IS EVIDENT THAT GOF AFRICANISTS ARE "CATCHING
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THEIR BREATH" AFTER THE EVACUATION OF FRENCH NATIONALS
AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE THEIR FORCES AND DO NOT HAVE
ANY SPECIFIC POLICY PROPOSALS UNDER CONSIDERATION OTHER
THAN PRESSING BOTH SIDES TO ENTER INTO A NEW SET OF
ARUSHA TALKS.
ARUSHA TALKS
4. THE CHARGE D'AFFAIRES OF THE TANZANIAN EMBASSY IN
PARIS BRIEFED THE QUAI ON APRIL 19 CONCERNING GOT
EFFORTS TO OPEN TALKS IN DAR ES SALAAM BETWEEN THE RPF
AND GOVERNMENT OF RWANDA WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE
ARUSHA ACCORDS. THE QUAI ENCOURAGED THE GOT EFFORT AND
ISSUED A PRESS STATEMENT ON APRIL 20 CALLING FOR A
CEASE-FIRE AND EXPRESSING SUPPORT OF THE TANZANIAN
INITIATIVE. THE FRENCH WILL BE REPRESENTED BY THEIR
AMBASSADOR OR DCM FROM DAR ES SALAAM. WE INFORMED THE
QUAI AND ELYSEE OF THE PARTICIPATION OF LT. COL. MARLEY
(REF D).
NATIONAL RECONCILIATION
5.
DURING A MEETING WITH THE RPF REPRESENTATIVE IN
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
PARIS ON APRIL 15, THE QUAI URGED AN END TO THE RPF
OFFENSIVE AS THE ONLY WAY TO END ETHNIC STRIFE. THE
FRENCH ALSO ARGUED THAT THE RPF MIGHT BE ABLE TO SEIZE
POWER IN KIGALI BUT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GOVERN
RWANDA.
UNCLASSIFIED
B1
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THE FRENCH
HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY STRUCK BY RECENT RPF STATEMENTS
ABOUT ON EXCLUDING PARTICIPATION BY HUTU PARTIES OR
FACTIONS THAT PARTICIPATED IN OR ENCOURAGED ETHNIC
VIOLENCE. WHILE SUCH A RESPONSE IS ENTIRELY
UNDERSTANDABLE, CILLARD STATED, THE GOF FEARS THAT IT
IS UNREALISTIC AND, IF HELD TO, WILL MAKE NATIONAL
RECONCILIATION UNACHIEVABLE.
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6. DELAYE ARGUED TO US THAT THE APPARENT RPF STRATEGY
OF TAKING THE CAPITAL AND THEN CREATING A COALITION
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3E813E 21123QZ /38
O 211137Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3559
INFO AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM IMMEDIATE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BANGUI
AMEMBASSY COTONOU
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AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
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CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 02 PARIS 10962
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, UN, FR, BY, RW
SUBJECT: WGRWOL: FRENCH PESSIMISM ON RWANDA
GOVERNMENT WITH SOUTHERN HUTUS WILL NEVER WORK. HE
PREDICTED THAT THE EXTREMIST HUTU FACTIONS WILL
ASSASINATION HUTU POLITICIANS (OR THE FAMILIES) WHO
COOPERATE WITH THE RPF. EVEN IF HUTU EXTREMISTS ARE
NOT ABLE TO CARRY OUT A POLICY OF INTIMIDATION, THEY
WILL CREATE A CLANDESTINE RESISTANCE MOVEMENT IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE THAT THE RPF WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS,
DELAYE OPINED. UNLESS THE RPF REACHES A NEGOTIATED
SETTLEMENT, THE LIKELIHOOD IS FOR YEARS OF INSTABILITY
AND ETHNIC BLOODSHED IN RWANDA, DELAYE PREDICTED.
MUSEVENI'S ROLE
7. THE GOF REMAINS IN CONTACT WITH UGANDAN PRESIDENT
MUSEVENI AND IS ATTEMPTING TO ENCOURAGE HIM TO APPLY
PRESSURE ON THE RPF TO HALT ITS OFFENSIVE.
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UNAMIR
8. THE GOF HAS NOT REACHED ANY STRONG CONCLUSIONS ON
THE FUTURE OF UNAMIR, AND DELAYE STATED THAT UNDER
CURRENT CONDITIONS HE DID NOT SEE MUCH DIFFERENCE WHICH
OPTION WAS CHOSEN BY THE SECURITY COUNCIL. THAT SAID,
THERE IS A PREFERENCE A CONTINUED UNAMIR MILITARY
PRESENCE IN KIGALI, PARTICULARLY IN HOPES OF KEEPING
THE AIRPORT FROM BEHIND DESTROYED, WHICH WOULD ALLOW A
RAPID RESPONSE BY HUMANITARIAN AGENCIES ONCE THE
FIGHTING STOPS. WHILE THE FIGURE USED BY THE UNAMIR
COMMANDER OF 1,000 MEN TO SECURE THE AIRPORT AND
PROTECT A UN POLITICAL PRESENCE SEEMS HIGH TO THE GOF,
THEY ARE PREPARED TO ACCEPT THAT NUMBER IF THAT IS WHAT
THE UNAMIR COMMANDER BELIEVES HE NEEDS. DELAYE ALSO
NOTED THAT A UNAMIR HEADQUARTERS SITE IN KIGALI COULD
EVENTUALLY SERVE AS A SECURE, NEUTRAL MEETING SITE
SHOULD AN AGREEMENT BE REACHED.
HARRIMAN
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