Résumé
Calm continues in Kigali neighborhoods, though tensions remain high. RPF rejection of the outcome of the president's meeting with the parties may dash hopes for an early end to the political impasse. U.S. and other interlocutors are urging the RPF to continue dialogue. President Habyarimana sent an emissary to the UN to convince the SYG he is not the cause of the political impasse. Meanwhile, UNAMIR reports both sides are strengthening defensive positions at the front and in Kigali. The embassy continues to monitor the situation closely and communicate with AmCits.
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FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5832
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ4-SAA// PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 03 KIGALI 00853
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BUJUMBURA FOR RSO
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E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PINS, ASEC, PHUM, PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: RPF REJECTS PARTY AGREEMENT; KIGALI CALM
BUT TENSE
REF: KIGALI B43
1. (C) SUMMARY. CALM CONTINUES IN KIGALI
NEIGHBORHOODS, THOUGH TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH. RPF
REJECTION OF THE OUTCOME OF THE PRESIDENT'S MEETING
WITH THE PARTIES (REFTEL) MAY DASH HOPES FOR AN EARLY
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: CHARLES L DARTS
DATE/CASE ID: 22 MAR 2006 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
END TO THE POLITICAL IMPASSE. U.S. AND OTHER
INTERLOCUTORS ARE URGING THE RPF TO CONTINUE
DIALOGUE. PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA SENT AN EMISSARY TO
THE UN TO CONVINCE THE SYG HE IS NOT THE CAUSE OF THE
POLITICAL IMPASSE. MEANWHILE, UNAMIR REPORTS BOTH
SIDES ARE STRENGTHENING DEFENSIVE POSITIONS AT THE
FRONT AND IN KIGALI. THE EMBASSY CONTINUES TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND COMMUNICATE WITH
AMCITS. END SUMMARY.
CALM CONTINUES
2. (U) KIGALI REMAINED CALM THROUGHOUT 2/28 AND
OVERNIGHT. TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH, WITH UNCERTAINTY
OVER WHETHER THE ALL-PARTY MEETING (REFTEL) WILL
INDEED LEAD TO THE SETTING UP OF THE TRANSITION
INSTITUTIONS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SOME RWANDANS
REMAIN DISPLACED FROM THEIR HOMES IN NEIGHBORHOODS
MOST AFFECTED BY THE RECENT TROUBLES; OTHERS CONTINUE
NIGHTTIME PATROLS TO DISCOURAGE ATTACKS.
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3. (U) THE PRIME MINISTER CONVENED A MEETING 2/28
OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, COMPOSED OF THE
MINISTERS OF DEFENSE, INTERIOR, AND JUSTICE. THE
COUNCIL RECOMMENDED GREATER EFFORT TO RECUPERATE ARMS
DISTRIBUTED TO CIVILIANS, SURVEILLANCE AND DISARMAMENT
OF POLITICAL PARTY YOUTH, AND INVESTIGATIONS OF PARTY
YOUTH GROUPS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE
ABOLISHED. THE COUNCIL ALSO RECOMMENDED INCREASING
NIGHTTIME PATROLS OF THE GENDARMERIE AND UN FORCES
(UNAMIR) AS WELL AS USING RADIO RWANDA TO DENY FALSE
RUMORS SPREAD BY OTHER MEDIA.
RPF REJECTS PARTY AGREEMENTS
4. (U) THE RPF REACTED NEGATIVELY TO THE COMMUNIQUE
ANNOUNCING THE OUTCOME OF THE PRESIDENT'S TWO-DAY
MEETING WITH THE POLITICAL PARTIES. IN A COMMUNIQUE
READ OVER RPF RADIO MUHABURA, THE RPF ANNOUNCED THAT
IT WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN A GOVERNMENT WHOSE TERMS
WERE ADOPTED IN A CLIMATE OF TERROR IMPOSED BY
PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA. THE RPF REITERATED ITS
POSITION THAT THE ONLY ACCEPTABLE LISTS OF DEPUTIES
ARE THOSE APPROVED BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
CONSTITUTIONAL COURT. THIS IS A REJECTION OF THE
DIVISION OF THE PL LIST AMONG THE TWO FACTIONS, A
FORMULA APPARENTLY ACCEPTABLE TO LEADERS OF THE TWO
FACTIONS.
5. (C) THE U.S. SENT A MESSAGE TO THE RPF LEADERS,
WHO HAVE WITHDRAWN TO THEIR MULINDI EADQUARTERS
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(REFTEL), VIA THEIR LIAISON OFFICER WHO PLANS TO
TRAVEL TO MULINDI 3/1. WE STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF
CONTINUING THE DIALOGUE AIMED AT BREAKING THE
POLITICAL IMPASSE AND SAID IT WAS OUR UNDERSTANDING
THAT THE COMMUNIQUE REFLECTED THE TRUE POSITIONS OF
ALL THE POLITICAL LEADERS AND PARTIES PARTICIPATING
IN THE PRESIDENT'S MEETING, NOT A RESULT DICTATED BY
THE PRESIDENT. OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH POLITICAL
LEADERS SINCE THE MEETING INDICATE THAT THERE WAS NO
DISSENSION ON THE CONTENT OF THE COMMUNIQUE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PL/LANDO FACTION WHICH REGISTERED
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AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
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E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PINS, ASEC, PHUM, PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: RPF REJECTS PARTY AGREEMENT; KIGALI CALM
RESERVATIONS ABOUT DISTRIBUTION OF MINISTERIAL
PORTFOLIOS AMONG PL FACTIONS. THE SEVERAL PARTY
LEADERS WHO WITHHELD THEIR SIGNATURES FROM THE
COMMUNIQUE, INCLUDING THE MDR LEADERSHIP, PL LEADERS
LANDO AND MBONAMPEKA, DID SO BECAUSE OF DISPUTES OVER
PARTY TITLES RATHER THAN COMMUNIQUE SUBSTANCE.
6. (C) THE SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SECRETARY
GENERAL (SRSG) BOOR BOOH PLANS TO TRAVEL TO MULINDI
3/1 TO PASS THE SAME MESSAGE TO THE RPF. HE WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RPF TO MAINTAIN THE POLITICAL DIALOGUE
AND AVOID REVERTING TO WAR. A SENIOR ADVISOR TO BOOH
BOOH TOLD DCM THAT UNAMIR IS CONVINCED THAT SOME RPF
STILL WANT A MILITARY SOLUTION. HE SAID AT THEIR
LAST MEETING WITH RPF COMMANDER KAGAME, HE HAD HINTED
THAT THE RPF MIGHT HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO RETURN TO
WAR AND NOTED THAT HE WAS WORRIED ABOUT BEING ABLE TO
CONTINUE FEEDING HIS FORCES. CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
MESSAGE TO EMBASSY OFFICERS (REFTEL), THE RPF LEADERS
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
MAZIMHAKA AND BIZIMUNGU TOLD UNAMIR IN A MEETING LAST
THURSDAY, 2/24, THAT THEY OPPOSED ALLIANCES THAT
WOULD GIVE THE PRESIDENT ABILITY TO BLOCK ACTS OF THE
NEW GOVERNMENT AND SUGGESTED THAT THEY COULD NOT
AGREE TO PARTICIPATE IN SUCH A GOVERNMENT.
7. (C) WE HAVE LEARNED THAT PRESIDENTIAL CABINET
DIRECTOR RUHIGIRA IS ALSO SEEKING A MEETING WITH RPF
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PRESIDENT KANYARENGWE.
SYG GETS TOUGH WITH HABYARIMANA
8. (C) PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA'S PERSONAL EMISSARY
WAS IN NEW YORK 2/28 TO EXPLAIN TO THE UN/SYG HIS
VIEW OF THE POLITICAL IMPASSE IN RWANDA. ACCORDING
TO UNAMIR POLITICAL OFFICERS, THE PRESIDENT WAS UPSET
BY THE SYG'S STRAIGHT TALK IN A TELEPHONE
CONVERSATION 2/24. THE PRESIDENT REPORTEDLY TOLD
UMAMIR THAT THE SYG HAD ACCUSED HIM OF BLOCKING THE
PROCESS AND URGED HIM TO MOVE AHEAD. THE PRESIDENT
REPORTEDLY REPLIED HE HAD BEEN DOING ALL IN HIS POWER
TO SEE THAT THE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS WERE
INSTALLED AND TOLD THE SYG HE HAD INCORRECT AND
INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. HENCE THE ENVOY, THE
MINISTER OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS, ANDRE
NTAGERURA, WHO HAS BEEN TAPPED TO MOVE TO PLAN IN THE
NEXT GOVERNMENT.
UNAMIR SECURITY CONCERNS
9. (LOU) UMAMIR BRIEFED DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY
SECURITY OFFICERS 2/28. THEY SAID THAT SOME OF THE
NEWLY-ARRIVED GHANIAN BATTALION WILL BE DEPLOYED TO
STATIONARY POSITIONS IN KIGALI TO FREE UP OTHER UNITS
(BELGIAN PARATROOPERS) IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE
NUMBER AND FREQUENCY OF PATROLS THROUGHOUT KIGALI.
IN ADDITION, UNAMIR WILL ESTABLISH 5-PERSON
INTERVENTION TEAMS TO RESPOND TO EMERGENCY SITUATIONS
AROUND TOWN. ON THE OTHER HAND, UNAMIR ALSO REPORTED
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THAT GOVERNMENT TROOPS IN MILITARY CAMPS AROUND
KIGALI ARE REINFORCING THEIR POSITIONS.
10. (C) UNAMIR COMMANDER HAS TOLD EMBASSY THAT
THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT DOCUMENTED CEASE-FIRE
VIOLATIONS IN THE DEMILITARIZED ZONE (DMZ), WITH GOR
FORCES AND RPF FORCES EXCHANGING FIRE. HE REPORTED
THAT THE RPF IS REINFORCING POSITIONS AT THE DMZ LINE
MARKING THE LIMIT OF RPF-HELD TERRITORY AS WELL AS
ESTABLISHING SOME NEW POINTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE, IN
THE DMZ. THE RPF HAS ALSO BEEN CONDUCTING VISIBLE
DAYTIME PATROLS IN THE DMZ. UNAMIR BELIEVES THIS RPF
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E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PINS, ASEC, PHUM, PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: RPF REJECTS PARTY AGREEMENT; KIGALI CALM
ACTIVITY MAY SIMPLY BE A SHOW OF FORCE FOR PUBLIC
CONSUMPTION, BUT THEY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT COULD ALSO
INDICATE ACTUAL PREPARATIONS FOR RETURN TO WAR.
COMMENT
11. (C) ALTHOUGH THE RPF'S RESPONSE TO THE
COMMUNIQUE OF THE PRESIDENTIAL MEETING WAS
PREDICTABLE, GOING PUBLIC SO QUICKLY WILL MAKE IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR THE POLITICAL FORCES IN THE
COUNTRY TO USE THE AGREEMENTS REACHED AS THE BASIS
FOR FUTURE DIALOGUE. CONTINUING RPF RESISTANCE TO
ANY MODIFICATION OF THE PL DEPUTY LISTS WILL ALSO
MAKE EARLY RESOLUTION OF THE IMPASSE DIFFICULT.
12. (LOU) AS LONG AS THE POLITICAL IMPASSE
CONTINUES, TENSIONS WILL REMAIN HIGH AMONG THE
POPULATION, PARTICULARLY IN KIGALI. THE EMBASSY WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND TO
PROVIDE SECURITY UPDATES TO THE OFFICIAL AND
NON-OFFICIAL AMERICAN COMMUNITY AS WARRANTED. THE
EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE (EAC) WILL MEET 3/2 TO
REVIEW THE SITUATION AND EVALUATE IMPLICATIONS FOR
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANNING.
RAWSON
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