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UNCLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIAL
RELEASED IN FULL
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O 240544Z DEC 92
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9876
INFO AMEMBASSY KIGALI IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAKAR PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BAMAKO
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY HARARE
AMEMBASSY LAGOS
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE //ECPLAD//
CONFI DENTIALSECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 07326
AF/RA FOR COL. MARLEY, AF/C FOR CAROL FULLER
CONFIDENTIAL
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ALSO FOR AF/E
DAR ES 07326 01 OF 02 240550Z
BONN FOR KLEMP, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW, LONDON FOR
MCKINLEY, PARIS FOR PERLOW
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: ARUSHA V - NEGOTIATORS SETTLE ON CABINET,
MOVE ON TO TRANSITIONAL ASSEMBLY
REF: A) KIGALI 05287
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: CHARLES L DAMS
DATE/CASE ID: 01 OCT 2008 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
B)
C)
BENTLEY-FLATEN PHONECON 12/22/92
BENTLEY-FULLER PHONECONS 12/22/92
CONFIDENTIAL - 2
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY. NEGOTIATORS IN ARUSHA REACHED AGREEMENT
ON THE DIVISION OF CABINET PORTFOLIOS ON DECEMBER 22
AND ANNOUNCED THIS IN A COMMUNIQUE ISSUED LATE THAT
EVENING. THE PARTIES WANT TO PRESS AHEAD ON THE
TRANSITIONAL NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, OTHER POLITICAL
ISSUES, REFUGEES AND THE POLITICAL ASPECTS OF
INTEGRATION OF FORCES, THEN SIGN A PROTOCOL ON THESE
ELEMENTS BEFORE TAKING A BREAK. END SUMMARY.
3. OAU ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL MAPURANGA ADVISED
POLOFF ON DEC. 22 THAT THE PARTIES HAD ACHIEVED A
"BREAKTHROUGH," AND HAD AGREED ON THE ALLOCATION OF
PORTFOLIOS IN THE TRANSITIONAL CABINET. THE FORMULA
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HE DESCRIBED MATCHES EXACTLY THE ONE OUTLINED TO AMB.
FLATEN BY PRIME MINISTER NSENGIYAREMYE ON DEC. 22
(REFTEL A). MAPURANGA WAS NOT AWARE THAT THIS
PROPOSAL WAS UNDER DISCUSSION IN KIGALI. MAPURANGA
SAID THAT THE NEGOTIATIONS WERE DRIVING FORWARD
BECAUSE THE PARTIES WERE DETERMINED TO TRY TO WRAP UP
A PROTOCOL. HE ADDED THAT THEY PLANNED TO START ON
THE TRANSITIONAL ASSEMBLY ON DEC. 23, THEN TAKE UP
OTHER POLITICAL ISSUES, SUCH AS THE CLEAN-UP OF THE
LOCAL ADMINISTRATION AND THE DURATION OF THE
TRANSITION PERIOD. AFTER THAT, THEY WOULD MOVE ON TO
REFUGEES, THEN THE POLITICAL ASPECTS OF MILITARY
INTEGRATION; I.E., THE SIZE OF THE FORCE AND THE
PERCENTAGE OF RPF PARTICIPATION. MAPURANGA WAS
OPTIMISTIC, SAYING THAT THE PARTIES WERE DETERMINED TO
PRESS ON AND SIGN A PROTOCOL BEFORE THEY LEFT ARUSHA.
THEY WOULD TAKE A BREAK, THEN RETURN TO RESUME ON THE
TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF MILITARY INTEGRATION. POLOFF
RELAYED TO MAPURANGA THE CONCERNS EXPRESSED IN REF B
PHONECON THAT THE ARUSHA PROCESS WAS GETTING AHEAD OF
THE STATE OF PLAY IN KIGALI; MAPURANGA PROMISED TO
SHARE THIS WITH THE OTHER OBSERVERS AND THE
FACILITATOR BUT SAID THE PARTIES WERE DETERMINED TO
PRESS ON.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4. ON DEC. 22 AND DEC. 23 POLOFF SPOKE WITH
JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BELLIARD, THE FRENCH OBSERVER IN
ARUSHA; HE ADVISED THAT THE JPMC MEETING ON DEC. 22
HAD CONSIDERED THE NMOG COMMANDERS REPORT; THE RPF HAD
RAISED THE FRENCH MILITARY PRESENCE IN THEIR REMARKS,
BUT THAT EVERYONE WAS IN A GOOD MOOD BECAUSE OF THE
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AGREEMENT ON THE CABINET SO THE SESSION WAS
NON-CONTENTIOUS. THE GOR AND THE RPF HAVE BOTH
SUBMITTED THEIR FORMAL REPLIES TO THE QUESTIONS
REGARDING FOREIGN TROOPS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
MILITARIES FROM THE NMOG COMMANDER; THE RPF SAID THEY
DIDN'T HAVE ANY; THE GOR ADMITTED THE FRENCH PRESENCE
BUT SAID IT WAS ALL COVERED BY PRE-EXISTING BILATERAL
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ACTION AF-01
DAR ES 07326 02 OF 02 240552Z
OASY-00 DODE-00 EUR-01 HA-09
INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01
ADS-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00
INRE-00
INR-01
L-03
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SNP-00 SP-00
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8A0117 240552Z /38
O 2405442 DEC 92
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9877
INFO AMEMBASSY KIGALI IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAKAR PRIORITY
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BAMAKO
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY HARARE
AMEMBASSY LAGOS
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE //ECPLAD//
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 07326
AF/RA FOR COL. MARLEY, AF/C FOR CAROL FULLER
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
ALSO FOR AF/E
DAR ES 07326 02 OF 02 240552Z
BONN FOR KLEMP, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW, LONDON FOR
MCKINLEY, PARIS FOR PERLOW
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARK, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: ARUSHA V - NEGOTIATORS SETTLE ON CABINET,
MOVE ON TO TRANSITIONAL ASSEMBLY
AGREEMENTS. THE FRENCH ARE SUPPORTING THIS POSITION;
NMOG COMPLAINED OF AN INABILITY TO VERIFY THE EXTENT
OF THE FRENCH ROLE BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF COOPERATION
FROM THE GOR. THE JPMC MEETING ON THE MORNING OF DEC.
23 WAS MORE CONTENTIOUS; BELLIARD SAID THE PARTIES
WASTED THREE HOURS IN AN ARGUMENT OVER THE TWO SIDES
BEING ENGAGED IN A MILITARY BUILDUP, AND WHO WAS
RESPONSIBLE, AND THE AMOUNT OF EFFORT AND MONEY BEING
WASTED. THE GOR DRAGGED IN THE UGANDAN ROLE, AND THE
UGANDAN REPRESENTATIVE GOT VERY HUFFY AND ALMOST
WALKED OUT, ETC. EVENTUALLY THE DISCUSSION PETERED
OUT WHEN EVERYONE REALIZED THEY WERE GOING NOWHERE.
5. MORE OPTIMISTICALLY, BELLIARD SAID THAT FONMIN
NGULINZIRA, ALTHOUGH AWARE OF SOME ADVERSE REACTION IN
KIGALI TO THE COMMUNIQUE ANNOUNCING THE AGREEMENT ON
THE CABINET, THOUGHT THAT IT WAS "NOT TOO NEGATIVE"
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
AND THAT EVENTUALLY THE AGREEMENT WOULD BE ACCEPTED.
BELLIARD ADDED THAT THE TWO SIDES NOW FAVORED GIVING
THE TWO UNALLOCATED SEATS IN THE CABINET TO
INDEPENDENT PERSONS, AS THE NON-CONCERTATION PARTIES
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ALL FAILED TO MEET THE BISHOP'S CRITERIA FOR
PARTICIPATION IN THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT.
DISCUSSION ON THIS WAS CONTINUING THE AFTERNOON OF
DEC. 23.
7. COMMENT: FROM OUR ADMITTEDLY LIMITED PERSPECTIVE,
IT LOOKS TO US LIKE THE GOR NEGOTIATING TEAM, IN
CAHOOTS WITH THE RPF, HAS PRESENTED THE MRND WITH A
DONE DEAL. FURTHER ADMONITIONS TO THE FACILITATOR OR
THE OBSERVERS NOT TO LET THE ARUSHA PROCESS GET OUT
AHEAD OF DISCUSSIONS IN KIGALI WOULD PROBABLY BE A
WASTE OF BREATH; NGULINZIRA, WITH OR WITHOUT THE
BLESSING OF HIS PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER, IS GOING
AHEAD AND THE RPF IS GOING ALONG. THE OBSERVERS AND
THE FACILITATOR, HAVING WAITED IN ARUSHA FOR A MONTH
WHILE THE PARTIES IN KIGALI DITHERED, ALSO FEEL THE
TWO SIDES SHOULD PRESS AHEAD. THE TANZANIANS IN
PARTICULAR AND THE AFRICAN OBSERVERS GENERALLY ARE
BANKING ON HABYARIMANA'S REPEATED ASSURANCES THAT HE
WOULD ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF THE ARUSHA NEGOTIATIONS.
THE EUROPEANS MAY HAVE THEIR DOUBTS, BUT DO NOT WANT
TO BE ACCUSED OF OBSTRUCTING THE PROCESS. THE
TANZANIANS BELIEVE THAT HABYARIMANA, HAVING MADE HIS
COMMITMENT DIRECTLY TO PRESIDENT MWINYI, WILL, ALBEIT
RELUCTANTLY, HAVE TO KEEP HIS PROMISES. OUR
COLLEAGUES IN KIGALI CAN TELL BETTER THAN WE WHETHER
THESE EXPECTATIONS ARE REALISTIC.
DE VOS
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