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FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2545
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY'
AMEMBASSY BONN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
RELEASED IN FULL
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 03 KIGALI 05197
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, RW
SUBJECT: THE POLITICS OF PEACE: INTERNAL DIALOGUE
REFS: (A) KIGALI 5119, (B) KIGALI 04101 (NOTAL),
(C) STATE 403597
1.
C - ENTIRE TEXT.
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KIGALI 05197 01 OF 03 161506Z
2. SUMMARY: POLITICAL LEADERS OF DIFFERENT PARTIES
ARE FINALLY TALKING TO EACH OTHER. THEY HAVE
PRODUCED A NUMBER OF IDEAS FOR BREAKING THE IMPASSE,
BUT ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM AN ACCEPTABLE
COMPROMISE FORMULA. HABYARIMANA TRAVELS TO BUJUMBURA
DECEMBER 22 TO MEET MUSEVENI, BUT PROBABLY IS NOT, AS
RUMORED, GOING TO PARIS. THE PROPOSED RPF MEETING
WITH RWANDAN POLITICAL PARTIES IN ARUSHA HAS BEEN
SCRUBBED. END SUMMARY.
INTERNAL DIALOGUE
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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: WILLIAM E LANDFAIR
DATE/CASE ID: 10 MAY 2005 200103014
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3. STIMULATED BY THE REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF
THE CLERGY, AND BY THE DEMARCHES OF WESTERN
AMBASSADORS AND THE NONCE, REAL DIALOGUE IS FINALLY
UNDERWAY IN RWANDA OVER THE MEANS OF SHARING POWER.
THE COMMITTEE OF CONTACTS OF THE CLERGY MET AGAIN
DECEMBER 14 AT THE REQUEST OF BOTH THE PRESIDENT AND
THE PRIME MINISTER. THE PRESIDENT'S CABINET DIRECTOR
MET WITH THE PRIME MINISTER THE SAME DAY AS DID THE
MINISTER OF INTERIOR WHO HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN THE
ORGANIZER OF THE MRND. CABINET DIRECTOR ENOCH
RUHIGIRA ALSO MET WITH MDR PRESIDENT FAUSTIN
TWAGIRAMUNGU TWO OR THREE TIMES SINCE DECEMBER 11.
MORE INFORMAL CONTACTS TOOK PLACE BETWEEN MRND
MINISTER OF HEALTH CASIMIR BIGIMUNGU AND PL PRESIDENT
JUSTIN MUGENZI.
4.
THERE IS A WHOLE RANGE OF PROPOSALS NOW ON THE
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KIGALI 05197 01 OF 03 161506Z
TABLE. THEY START WITH AN MRND PUBLIC PROPOSAL THAT
THE MRND AND ITS ALLIANCE PARTNERS SHOULD HAVE 45
PERCENT OF THE SEATS, THE MDR AND ITS ALLIANCE
PARTNERS SHOULD HAVE 45 PERCENT, AND 10 PERCENT WOULD
BE LEFT FOR OTHER PARTIES. THIS WAS NOT TAKEN
SERIOUSLY.
5. MOVING BACK FROM THE RIGHT, THE PRESIDENCY HAS
PROPOSED A FORMULA WHEREBY THE MRND WOULD BE
ESSENTIALLY GUARANTEED THE VOTES OF THE THREE "OTHER
PARTIES". THE LOGIC OF THIS IS THAT IF ALL OF THE
OTHER PARTIES' MINISTERS WERE INDEPENDENT, THE MRND
WOULD HAVE TO RECRUIT OR PERSUADE FIVE MEMBERS IN
ORDER TO GET A BLOCKING THIRD, WHEREAS THE OPPOSITION
PARTIES WOULD NEED TO RECRUIT ONLY ONE MINISTER FROM
THE INDEPENDENTS TO HAVE A DOMINATING TWO-THIRDS.
THE PRESIDENCY'S PLAN CALLS FOR THE CDR TO HOLD AT
LEAST ONE OF THE OTHER PARTIES' MINISTRIES. BUT
RUHIGIRA WAS PREPARED TO LOOK AT INDIVIDUALS WHO
MIGHT REPRESENT CDR AND/OR OTHER INTERESTS AS A MEANS
OF REACHING AN AGREED COMPROMISE POSITION. SOME
FORMULA WHEREBY IT IS AGREED IN ADVANCE THAT THE
CURRENT PRIME MINISTER WOULD REMAIN IN OFFICE AND
THAT HE WOULD HAVE SOME FORM OF CONTROL OVER THE
SELECTION OF INDIVIDUAL MINISTERS, EVEN THOUGH THE
PARTIES WERE DETERMINED IN ADVANCE AND SOME FORM OF
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRESIDENT ON THOSE INDIVIDUALS,
COULD LEAD TO AGREEMENT.
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6. ON THE BASIS OF CONVERSATIONS WITH BIZIMUNGU AND
WITH DIRIA, MUGENZI HAS ALSO MADE A PROPOSAL, WHICH
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KIGALI 05197 01 OF 03 161506Z
HE WISHED US TO PROPOSE TO THE PRESIDENT SO THAT THE
PRESIDENT MIGHT PROPOSE IT BACK TO THE OPPOSITION
PARTIES AS THE BASIS FOR AN AGREEMENT. THE PROPOSAL
IS NOT PARTICULARLY NEW. IT WOULD BEGIN FROM THE
CLERICS' RECOMMENDATIONS, AND SUGGEST THAT THE THREE
OTHER PARTIES BE SELECTED FROM AMONG THOSE WHO ARE
NEUTRAL, PLUS ONE ONLY FROM THE PDC. MUGENZI
SUGGESTS THAT THE THREE OTHER PARTIES BE THE PD, THE
PDI AND THE RTD. HE SUGGESTS THAT WITH THAT THE MRND
WOULD HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF "BUYING" FOUR PARTIES
TO ADD TO THE THREE PLUS THE PRESIDENCY FOR A
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FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2546
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BONN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 03 KIGALI 05197
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, RW
SUBJECT: THE POLITICS OF PEACE: INTERNAL DIALOGUE
POTENTIAL TOTAL OF A BLOCKING EIGHT WITHIN THE
GOVERNMENT. HE SAID THAT IF THE MRND WERE TO PROPOSE
PUTTING THE CDR IN AS ONE OF THE "NEUTRAL" PARTIES
THE OPPOSITION WOULD INSIST ON PUTTING IN THE PSR.
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KIGALI 05197 02 OF 03 161508Z
THUS HE DID NOT TOTALLY REJECT THE CDR AS HAVING ONE
OF THE POSSIBLE SEATS IN THE GOVERNMENT.
7. MRND MINISTER OF INTERIOR FAUSTIN MUNYAZESA TOLD
ME HE IS PREPARED TO GO A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WITH THE
COMPROMISE IDEA. HE SEEMED WILLING TO ACCEPT
INDIVIDUALS SUCH AS ARDHO PRESIDENT NKUBITO, OR EVEN
ADL PRESIDENT NTEZIMANA, AS PERSONS WITH ENOUGH
PERSONAL INDEPENDENCE TO BE ABLE TO PLAY THE MIDDLE
GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR BLOCS.
B. RUHIGIRA'S IDEA INCLUDES THE AGREEMENT IN ADVANCE
ON A PROGRAM MORE DETAILED THAN THE APRIL PROGRAM,
AND AN INNER CABINET THAT WOULD BE ASKED TO TRY TO
ACHIEVE CONSENSUS TO AVOID THE TENDENTIOUS VOTES.
9. THE MOST FASCINATING IDEA WHICH IS FLOATING IS
THAT OF MINISTER OF HEALTH CASIMIR BIZIMUNGU, WHO IS
ALSO THE MRND ORGANIZER FOR THE MRND HEARTLAND OF
RUHENGERI. REVIVING HIS PROPOSAL, WHICH HE MADE TO
US WEEKS AGO (REFTEL B), BIZIMUNGU SUGGESTED TO PL
PRESIDENT MUGENZI THAT HE WAS GOING TO PROPOSE TO THE
PRESIDENT THAT HE ANNOUNCE HIS INTENTION NOT TO SEEK
REELECTION. HE ASKED THE PL IF, UNDER THOSE
CIRCUMSTANCES, THEY WOULD BE PREPARED TO GIVE A TOTAL
AMNESTY TO THE PRESIDENT AND HIS FAMILY. PL MINISTER
OF LABOR AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS LANDO TOLD DCM THAT THE
PL RESPONSE HAD BEEN ENTHUSIASTIC AND THAT,, UNDER THE
CIRCUMSTANCES OF A HABYARIMANA WITHDRAWAL, THE PL
WOULD AGREE TO ELECTIONS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
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10. SEVERAL OF THE PROPOSALS NOW BEING HEARD CONTAIN
A PROHIBITION OF ANY MINISTER IN THE NEW GOVERNMENT
RUNNING FOR ELECTORAL OFFICE AT THE END OF THE
TRANSITION. MOST PROPOSALS ALSO CONTAIN SOME
PROVISION FOR AN OATH OF OFFICE REJECTING ETHNISM,
REGIONALISM AND VIOLENCE, AS PROPOSED BY CHURCH
LEADERS, AS A POSSIBLE MEANS OF MAKING THE RPF
ACCEPTABLE HERE, AND PERHAPS THE CDR ACCEPTABLE TO
THE RPF.
11. (COMMENT: THESE ARE JUST A FEW OF THE IDEAS
FLOATING, AND UNDOUBTEDLY THEY ARE BEING CHANGED AS
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THEY ARE BEING PRESENTED TO VARIOUS OPPOSITION
PARTIES, BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THAT
RWANDANS ARE IN DIALOGUE WITH RWANDANS ON THE NATURE
OF THE COMPROMISE THAT NEEDS TO BE MADE. IT WILL BE
AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE AN AGREED FORMULA IS
REACHED. END COMMENT.)
PRESIDENTIAL MANEUVERS
12. PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA IS CLEARLY IN A VERY
DIFFICULT POSITION. ALTHOUGH HE GIVES SIGNS
PERSONALLY OF WANTING TO WORK OUT A COMPROMISE, HIS
PARTY, HIS FAMILY AND HIS LOYAL SUPPORTERS OF YEARS
ARE TERRIFIED OF BEING MARGINALIZED, UNABLE TO DEFEND
THEMSELVES, POSSIBLY BEING PERSECUTED OR PROSECUTED
OR WORSE. SO THE PRESIDENT TRIED TO GET THE
TANZANIANS TO SUPPORT HIM. FAILING THAT, HE IS NOW
SCHEDULED TO MEET WITH MUSEVENI AND BUYOYA IN
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BUJUMBURA DECEMBER 22. AND IT IS WIDELY BELIEVED
THAT HE IS SEEKING AN APPOINTMENT WITH MITTERAND IN
PARIS.
13. THE PRESIDENT SENT TWO SPECIAL ENVOYS TO PARIS
•
LAST WEEK: FORMER PRIME MINISTER SYLVESTRE
NSANZIMANA AND FORMER SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE MRND
BONAVENTURE HABIMANA. BOTH HAVE MESSAGES FOR
MITTERAND, BUT NEITHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO
DELIVER IT PERSONALLY. IN ADDITION TO SEEKING AN
AUDIENCE FOR HABYARIMANA, NSANZIMANA WAS APPARENTLY
INSTRUCTED TO SEEK MITTERAND'S AGREEMENT TO SIX
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AMEMBASSY BONN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 03 OF 03 KIGALI 05197
CORRECTED COPY(TEXT PARA 17)
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, RW
SUBJECT: THE POLITICS OF PEACE: INTERNAL DIALOGUE
CABINET POSITIONS FOR THE MRND, AND HABIMANA
APPARENTLY HAS A MESSAGE TO REQUEST MITTERAND TO
RETAIN AMBASSADOR MARTRES IN KIGALI PAST HIS
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KIGALI 05197 03 OF 03 260726Z
RETIREMENT DATE OF JANUARY 19, 1993. THE PRESIDENT'S
AIRPLANE REMAINS IN KIGALI AFTER CANCELING ITS
LONG-SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE, SO EVERYBODY KNOWS-THAT
SOMETHING IS UNDERWAY. RUHIGIRA IS DOUBTFUL OF A
MITTERAND.MEETING, BUT HAS NOT DENIED THAT IT WAS
SUGGESTED.
14. COMPLICATING THE SEARCH FOR A BALANCING FORMULA
IS THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN THE
NEW CABINET, THUS REDUCING THE POTENTIAL VOTES FROM
22 TO 21, AND MAKING POSSIBLE A TWO-THIRDS WITH 14
INSTEAD OF 15.
THE ROLE OF THE CHURCH
15. THE CATHOLIC CHURCH ORGANIZED A PEACEFUL MARCH
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 13, DRAWING AN ESTIMATED 15,000
PEOPLE TO THE REGIONAL STADIUM IN SUPPORT OF PEACE.
PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA JOINED THE THRONG, WHICH WAS
LED BY THE ARCHBISHOP OF KIGALI, A NON-PARTICIPANT IN
THE COMMITTEE OF CONTACTS. BUT HIS WORDS WERE GOOD,
CALLING ON RWANDANS TO LIVE IN PEACE WITH EACH OTHER,
IN TOLERANCE FOR OPPOSING VIEWS AND TO AVOID ETHNIC
AND REGIONAL DISCRIMINATION.
16. MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE OF CONTACTS ARE
REPORTEDLY UNITED AGAIN, AFTER DISMISSING FROM THEIR
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GATHERING AN EPISCOPAL BISHOP WHO WAS HIGHLY CRITICAL
OF OTHER BISHOPS, AND REPLACING HIM WITH ANOTHER
EPISCOPALIAN. THE PRESIDENT WOULD LIKE THE CLERGY TO
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REEXAMINE THE RECOMMENDATIONS WHICH THEY MADE ON
NOVEMBER 27. THE PRIME MINISTER WANTS THEM TO COME
UP WITH NAMES OF PERSONS WHO COULD FILL BALANCING
SEATS IN THE CABINET.
MEETING WITH RPF
17. OPPOSITION PARTIES HERE HAVE NOW ACCEPTED THAT
THE FIVE-PARTY MEETING WITH THE RPF PLANNED BY THE
FOREIGN MINISTER WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. RPF REJECTION
OF THE IDEA WAS PASSED TO PL LEADER MUGENZI BY
PASTEUR BIZIMUNGU ON DECEMBER 10. THIS CONTRADICTS
THE INFORMATION FROM CHAIRMAN KANYARENGWE REPORTED IN
STATE 396376. ACCORDING TO MUGENZI, THE RPF IS
WILLING TO MEET WITH RWANDAN POLITICAL PARTIES
INFORMALLY AT SOME LOCATION OTHER THAN ARUSHA.
BIZIMUNGU INSISTED THAT ARUSHA IS FOR DIRECT
RPF-GOVERNMENT NEGOTIATIONS ONLY. BUT ACCORDING TO
MUGENZI HE WOULD NOT OBJECT TO THE POLITICAL PARTIES
BEING MADE PART OF THE RWANDAN OFFICIAL DELEGATION.
MUGENZI IS NOW PUSHING THIS IDEA. -RUHIGIRA, ON THE
OTHER HAND, IS NOW PLAYING WITH A FORMULA FOR AN
INFORMAL MEETING OF THE MIND AND THE RPF BROKERED BY
FOREIGN MINISTER NGULINZIRA. I DOUBT IT WILL HAPPEN,
BUT THE IDEA SHOWS SOME NEW FLEXIBILITY IN THOUGHT AT
LEAST.
18. COMMENT: IN OUR MEETING WITH HIM LAST FRIDAY,
THE PRIME MINISTER REMINDED THE WESTERN OBSERVERS
THAT EVEN AFTER AGREEMENT IN KIGALI ON THE DIVISION
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OF MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIOS, THE PROPOSAL WILL HAVE TO
BE SOLD TO THE RPF IN ARUSHA. THIS COULD BE A FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD PROCESS, BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE.
IN FACT, THE POSSIBILITIES ARE LEGION OF MANIPULATING
THE SCENE BETWEEN HERE AND ARUSHA. THIS IS ONE
REASON WHY THE PRESIDENCY IS BEING SO CAUTIOUS IN
DEALING WITH COMPROMISE PROPOSALS. END COMMENT.
FLATEN
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