Citation
CONFIDENTIAL
H39
UNCLASSIFIED
RELEASED IN FULL
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
KAMPAL 06541 01 OF 03 161301Z
INFO LOG-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 ADS-00 ONY-00 SSO-00
68456B 161302Z /38
R 161243Z AUG 94
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1429
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 03 KAMPALA 006541
FOR AF AND AF/C ONLY FROM RAWSON
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, RW
SUBJECT: TWO WEEKS ALONG IN KIGALI
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. AMBASSADOR RAWSON IN KIGALI HAS ASKED AMEMBASSY
KAMPALA TO SEND OUT THE FOLLOWING REPORT.
3. SUMMARY. TWO WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT VITAL SIGNS OF
LIFE BACK TO KIGALI BUT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY SIDE
REMAINS IN COMA. RWANDA IS NOW HOOKED UP TO AN
INTERNATIONAL LIFE-SUPPORT SYSTEM WHOSE COSTS CANNOT
BE INDEFINITELY MAINTAINED. ITS NASCENT GOVERNMENT
MUST GAIN LEGITIMACY AND VITALITY FROM RETURNING
POPULATIONS OR IT WILL ATROPHY. BASELINES FOR
DIAGNOSIS OF RWANDA'S CONDITION AND PROGNOSIS OF ITS
FUTURE INCLUDE ITS SECURITY SITUATION, DEGREE OF
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
KAMPAL 06541 01 OF 03 161301Z
POLITICAL OPENNESS, ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, UNAMIR'S
ABILITY TO FULFILL ITS MANDATE, IMPLEMENTATION OF AN
UP-COUNTRY STRATEGY, AND LEVEL OF NATION STATE
SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL COVENANTS.
4. SECURITY. THE PART OF RWANDA CONTROLLED BY THE
RWANDAN GOVERNMENT IS MORE SECURE THAN IT HAS BEEN
SINCE THE RWANDAN PATRIOTIC ARMY INVADED RWANDA FROM
UGANDA IN OCTOBER 1990. THE RPF HAS ROUTED THE
REGULAR ARMY AND CHASED MILITIA BEYOND THE BORDERS.
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: HARRY R MELONE
DATE/CASE ID: 24 MAR 2006 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
/001W
UNCLASSIFIED
A FEW CHECK POINTS DOT ROADS RADIATING OUT FROM
KIGALI TOWARDS THE BORDER, BUT TRAFFIC FLOWS
SMOOTHLY. HUMANITARIAN ORGANIZATIONS OPERATE FREELY
(AS COULD OUR MILITARY, SHOULD THEIR HUMANITARIAN
MISSION REQUIRE) THROUGHOUT THE LAND. EXPATRIATE
HUMANITARIAN STAFF CAN MOVE IN COMPLETE SAFETY CROSS
COUNTRY OR ALONG KIGALI'S STREETS, DAY OR NIGHT.
MANY OF OUR ROOMS AT THE HOTEL DIPLOMAT HAVE NO
LOCKS, YET NOT AN ITEM HAS BEEN TOUCHED.
5. AT THE SAME TIME, RPF OFFICERS AND THEIR RELATIVES
RETURNING FROM EXILE HAVE LOOTED AND EXPROPRIATED
HOUSES, STORES AND WAREHOUSES, CONSIDERING THE BOOTY
AND LUXURIOUS BILLETING JUST REWARD FOR THIRTY YEARS
OF EXILE. RETURNING HUTU'S ARE SUBJECT TO SCRUTINY
AT CHECK POINTS AND IMMEDIATE ARREST IF SUSPECTED OF
PARTICIPATION IN THE MASSACRES. HUTUS DISAPPEAR AND
TUTSIS, OFTEN FROM UGANDA OR BURUNDI, QUICKLY TAKE
THEIR JOBS. A DECEPTIVE QUIET HANGS OVER THIS TOWN
THAT STILL HARBORS DEEP SUSPICIONS AND FEARS.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
KAMPAL 06541 01 OF 03 161301Z
6. POLITICAL OPENNESS. PRIME MINISTER TWAGIRAMUNGU IS
STILL FIGHTING RPF LEADERSHIP IN AN EFFORT TO
PRESERVE THE ARUSHA FORMULA OF PARTY BALANCE AND
POWER SHARING IN GOVERNMENT. HE HAS BEEN MODERATELY
SUCCESSFUL. THE GOVERNMENT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF
REGIONS AND HOLD A CURIOUS MIX OF OPPOSITION HUTU,
RPF HUTU, INLAND TUTSI AND EXILE TUTSI. THE POSITION
OF MINISTER OF PLAN REMAINS OPEN IN THE HOPE THAT
SOME MRND HUTU WILL HAVE THE COURAGE TO SIGN ON. RPF
DOMINATES WITH ITS NINE POSITIONS INCLUDING THAT OF
PRESIDENT. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE GOVERNMENT DEPENDS
ON THE RPF APPARATUS FOR SECURITY, FOR EXTERNAL
CONTACTS, FOR FINANCING AND FOR ALL MATERIAL
RESOURCES.
7. IT WILL BE FASCINATING TO SEE HOW THIS CURIOUS
GOVERNMENTAL MIX EVOLVES. THE KEY TO SECURING MORE
OPENNESS AND BROAD-BASED REPRESENTATION IN THE
GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION IS TO•GIVE THAT
GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATION, ESPECIALLY ITS NON-RPF
MEMBERS, THE ELEMENTARY CAPACITY TO FUNCTION, TO
REACH OUT TO THEIR PEOPLE AND BE SEEN AS EFFECTIVE IN
PROVIDING BASIC SERVICES. MINISTERS AND THEIR
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
ADMINISTRATIONS NEED AUTONOMY FROM RPF CONTROL.
TWAGIRAMUNGU CANNOT ADEQUATELY CONTEST RPF DOMINANCE
WHEN HE HAS TO GO TO KAGAME FOR AN ESCORT UP-COUNTRY
OR LINE UP TO CALL ON RPF'S IMARSAT PHONE.
8. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS. KIGALI HAS BEEN
"VANDALIZED." LIKE ANCIENT CONQUERORS, THE
FORMERLY-DISCIPLINED RPA, ONCE THEY HAD TAKEN KIGALI,
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04
KAMPAL 06541 01 OF 03 161301Z
TURNED INTO A MARAUDING HORDE, EMPTYING HOUSES AND
STOREHOUSES, SCATTERING RECORDS AND MEMENTOS.
RELATIVES AND FRIENDS FROM UGANDA AND BURUNDI MOVED
INTO ANY AVAILABLE LUXURY HOME. THE GOVERNMENT
PROTESTS THAT THIS IS A TEMPORARY PHENOMENON;
PROPERTIES ARE TO BE RETURNED TO THEIR PROPER OWNERS
ONCE PROP
RIETORSHIP IS ESTABLISHED. LOOTING HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS BUT
PROPERTIES, INCLUDING OUR OWN, ARE STILL BEING
VIOLATED. GENERAL KAGAME ADMITS HE HAS A PROBLEM AND
THE GOVERNMENT HAS SET UP A COMMISSION TO DEAL WITH
THE ISSUE. BUT THE LESSON THAT ANYONE AFFILIATED TO
RPF MILITARY POWER CAN TAKE WHATEVER PLEASES HIM WILL
BE UNLEARNED WITH DIFFICULTY.
9. THE RESULT IS THAT BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE HAS
SURVIVED THIS LOW-TECH CIVIL WAR, BUT ECONOMIC
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
KAMPAL 06541 02 OF 03 161301Z
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
INFO LOG-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00
ADS-00 ONY-00 SSO-00
684573 161302Z /38
R 161243Z AUG 94
FM AMEMEASSY KAMPALA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1430
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 03 KAMPALA 006541
FOR AF AMD AF/C ONLY FROM RAWSON
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, RW
SUBJECT: TWO WEEKS ALONG IN KIGALI
CAPITAL IN RURAL AND URBAN RWANDA HAS BEEN
DESTROYED. OUT ON THE HILLSIDES, FARMERS HAVE FLED
BEFORE THE RPF OUT OF FEAR AND INTIMIDATION, LEAVING
THEIR HARVEST (AND NEXT SEASON'S SEED) STANDING IN
THE FIELD. THE GOVERNMENT HAS YET TO INDUCE A
MASSIVE RETURN TO THE LAND; WHILE SOME ZONES ARE
SEEING A MODEST REPRISE OF AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY,
MOST RURAL LANDS UNDER GOVERNMENT AUTHORITY ARE
EMPTY. MEANWHILE THE CAPITAL ASSETS OF KIGALI AND
OTHER TOWNS HAVE BEEN RIPPED UP, SOLD OFF AND SHIPPED
TO UGANDA AND BURUNDI. FURTHERMORE, THOUGH FORMER
GOVERNMENT FORCES LEFT MANY OF KIGALI'S ASSETS
INTACT, THEY DID TAKE THE BANKS WITH THEM. STATE
TREASURIES ARE VIRTUALLY EMPTY. RELAUNCHING RWANDA'S
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
KAMPAL 06541 02 OF 03 161301Z
ECONOMY WILL REQUIRE AN INFUSION OF FUNDS TO RESTORE
A MONETARY ECONOMY, RENEWED RESPECT FOR PERSONAL
PROPERTY, REVIVED CONFIDENCE OF RURAL POPULATIONS IN
THEIR GOVERNMENT AND CAREFUL STEWARDSHIP OF THE VERY
LIMITED RESOURCES AT THE GOVERNMENT'S DISPOSAL.
10. FULFILLING UNAMIR'S MANDATE. ON APRIL 6, UNAMIR
HAD THE WRONG MANDATE; IT HAD COME AS A PEACEKEEEPING
FORCE WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT BOTH SIDES WANTED ITS
PRESENCE AND ATTENDANT PEACE. EVER HOPING FOR A
POLITICAL SETTLEMENT, UN HEADQUARTERS PROHIBITED THE
FORCE COMMANDER FROM USING FORCE. NOW DALLAIRE HAS A
MANDATE UNDER SR 918 AND 925 TO EXERCISE FORCE IN
PROTECTING THE INNOCENT, GUARDING HUMANITARIAN
UNCLASSIFIED
/ 0 01 W
UNCLASSIFIED
OPERATIONS AND BUTRESSING THE CEASEFIRE/PEACE
PROCESS. BUT UNAMIR MUST FULFILL THAT MANDATE AND
NOWHERE MORE IMPORTANTLY THAN IN THE IMMINENT
TAKE-OVER OF THE FRENCH HUMANITARIAN ZONE. THE
PEOPLE THERE ARE FRIGHTENED, TIRED BUT WILL MOVE
AGAIN IF UNAMIR CANNOT NOT REASSURE THEM AND KEEP THE
GOVERNMENT FROM TOO QUICKLY ASSERTING ITS CONTROL.
UNAMIR MUST ALSO GIVE CREDENCE TO ITS PROTECTION
MANDATE IN THE NORTHWEST CORRIDOR WHERE REFUGEES ARE
RETURNING HOME AND IN THE EAST WHERE REFUGEES ARE
STILL CROSSING OVER INTO TANZANIA.
11. TO CARRY OUT ITS MANDATE IN RWANDA'S FAR
CORNERS, UNAMIR MUST LAND ADEQUATE EQUIPMENT AND
ADEQUATE TROOPS WITHIN A WEEK. THE GHANAIANS ARE
MOSTLY HERE BUT STILL NEED BIVOUAC MATERIALS, NIGHT
VISION EQUIPMENT AND UTILITY VEHICLES. THE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03
KAMPAL 06541 02 OF 03 161301Z
ETHIOPIANS ARE REPORTEDLY READY TO COME; THE
TUNISIANS APPARENTLY NEED TOPPING OFF IN EQUIPMENT.
YOU ARE BETTER ABLE THAN WE TO TRACK WITH THE UN AND
OUR OWN MILITARY WHAT IS REQUIRED TO GET THESE TROOPS
AND EQUIPMENT ON THE GROUND, BUT WE MUST BEGIN TO
MOVE THEM HERE NOW OR RWANDA'S PEOPLE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LEFT TO THEIR OWN (HORRENDOUS) DEVICES.
12. AN UP-COUNTRY STRATEGY. DEALING WITH DISASTER
IN THIS AREA REQUIRES AN UP-COUNTRY APPROACH WITH THE
CAPACITY TO QUICKLY MOVE ASSISTANCE TO COPE WITH EVER
NEW CONTINGENCIES. IN THE BEST OF SCENARIOS, REFUGEE
OUTFLOWS FROM RWANDA EVENTUALLY STOP AND PEOPLE BEGIN
RETURNING TO THEIR HOMES. IN THIS CASE KIGALI
BECOMES THE HUB OF A RECONSTRUCTION AND
RECONCILIATION EFFORT WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BASIC
SERVICES AND PLACE HUMAN RIGHTS MONITORS AND
COMMUNITY WORKERS IN REGIONAL CENTERS AND OUTLYING
DISTRICTS. THE QUICKEST WAY TO LEVERAGE SERVICES IS
TO HAVE USAID FUND AND THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS
CNTRACT REPAIR TEAMS FOR WATER, ELECTRIC, ROAD AND
COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE. TO HELP RWANDA
REBUILD SOCIALLY, HUMAN RIGHTS MONITORS AND PVO
COMMUNITY WORKERS MUST BE VISIBLE, ACTIVE AND
ACCESSIBLE OUT ON RWANDA'S HILLSIDES.
13.
IN THE WORSE SCENARIO, THE DISPLACED BUST OUT OF
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
THE SOUTHWEST OR REFUGEES POUR BACK INTO THE
NORTHWEST OVERWHELM
ING SERVICES PRE-POSITIONED FOR
THEM. IN THIS INSTANCE, KIGALI BECOMES THE HUB OF A
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04
KAMPAL 06541 02 OF 03 161301Z
REGIONAL HUMANITARIAN EFFORT, PROVIDING C-130 FLIGHTS
TO CYANGUGU OR GISENYI OR LINKING UP HEAVY-HAUL
SUPPLY ROUTES FROM TANZANIA AND UGANDA WITH A
TRUCKING CHAIN TO UP-COUNTRY CENTERS. KIGALI AIRPORT
IS NOW HANDLING ABOUT 300 SHORT TONS A DAY; IT COULD
HANDLE AS MUCH AS 1000 SHORT TONS A DAY. IN-TOWN
WAREHOUSING CAPACITY PLENTIFUL AND IN RELATIVELY GOOD
SHAPE. WE HAVE THE MANAGEMENT CAPACITY NOW IN KIGALI
TO TRACK HUMANITARIAN SHIPMENTS AND TO PLAN THEIR
EFFECTIVE DISTRIBUTION. KIGALI IS NOW AN ESSENTIAL
AND PRACTICAL DISTRIBUTION CENTER FOR ADDRESSING
UP-COUNTRY HUMANITARIAN CONTINGENCIES.
14. KEEPING INTERNATIONAL COVENANTS. A CONCLUSION
TO RWANDA'S CIVIL WAR AND SOME CLOSURE ON ITS LONG
HISTORY OF COMMUNAL MASSACRES DEPENDS ON THE WILL OF
STATES IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO CARRY OUT
COMMITMENTS MADE IN INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONS. THE
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01
ACTION AF-01
KAMPAL 06541 03 OF 03 161301Z
INFO LOG-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 ADS-00 ONY-00 SSO-00
684576 161302Z /38
R 161243Z AUG 94
UNCLASSIFIED
/001W
UNCLASSIFIED
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1431
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 03 OF 03 KAMPALA 006541
FOR AF AMD AF/C ONLY FROM RAWSON
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, RW
SUBJECT: TWO WEEKS ALONG IN KIGALI
LEADERS AND ARMY WHO LOST THE CIVIL WAR ARE NOW
OUTSIDE RWANDA'S FRONTIERS SUSTAINED AS REFUGEES ON
INTERNATIONAL BENEVOLENCE BUT STILL ARMED AND STILL
ORGANIZING WITHIN THE REFUGEE CAMPS AN ARMED INVASION
OF RWANDA. WE MUST FIND A WAY OF ENFORCING
INTERNATIONAL CONVENTIONS BY DISARMING SOLDIERS AND
BREAKING THE POLITICIANS' INTIMIDATING HOLD OVER
CIVILIAN REFUGEES. WITHIN RWANDA, WE MUST ENSURE
THAT CRIMES OF GENOCIDE AND OTHER VIOLATIONS OF HUMAN
RIGHTS ARE DEALT WITH JUSTLY AND BY INTERNATIONAL
STANDARDS. SETTING UP AN INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL IS
PART OF THE SOLUTION, BUT WE ALSO MUST AS A MATTER OF
FIRST ORDER HELP RWANDA CREATE A VIABLE JUDICIAL
SYSTEM OPEN TO INTERNATIONAL SUPERVISION.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02
KAMPAL 06541 03 OF 03 161301Z
15. THE TASKS OUTLINED ABOVE ARE DAUNTING IN THE
BEST OF CIRCUMSTANCES. WITH AN ARMY THAT HAS LOST
DISCIPLINE, A GOVERNMENT THAT CAN BARELY FUNCTION,
AND A SOCIETY TRAUMATIZED BY COMMUNAL VIOLENCE,
RWANDA'S CIRCUMSTANCES ARE NOT ENCOURAGING. BUT
NEW-FOUND SECURITY IN THE GOVERNMENT ZONE PROVIDES AN
EFFECTIVE PLATFORM FOR ADDRESSING THESE ILLS AND A
HUB FOR EFFICIENTLY RESPONDING TO HUMANITARIAN
NEEDS. WE CAME BACK TO KIGALI TO HELP SAVE LIVES AND
MUST REMAIN HERE FOR THE SELF-SAME REASON. BUSH
CONFIDENTIAL
UNCLASSIFIED
