Résumé
Some transitions institutions may be installed January 5. The President has agreed to take the oath of office in the morning and has agreed to swear in Assembly Deputies in the afternoon. The prime Minister designate and political parties leaders, including the RPF, who object to the list of Liberal Party (PL) deputies submitted by the president, are scrambling to find formulas they can live with, given this acknowledged opening from the president. Invitations to ceremonies have yet to be extended. The political transformation of Mugenzi, whose commitment to reconciliation and a multi-ethnic society seemed unshakable -- he lost a brother to assassins in the process -- is nothing short of incredible. It is not surprising that Twagiramungu rejects him as a member of his cabinet.
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1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. SUMMARY. SOME TRANSITIONS INSTITUTIONS MAY BE
INSTALLED JANUARY 5. THE PRESIDENT HAS AGREED TO
TAKE THE OATH OF OFFICE IN THE MORNING AND HAS AGREED
TO SWEAR IN ASSEMBLY DEPUTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRIME MINISTER DESIGNATE AND POLITICAL PARTIES
LEADERS, INCLUDING THE RPF, WHO OBJECT TO THE LIST OF
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: JOHN L MILLS
DATE/CASE ID: 01 NOV 2007 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
LIBERAL PARTY (PL) DEPUTIES SUBMITTED BY THE
PRESIDENT, ARE SCRAMBLING TO FIND FORMULAS THEY CAN
LIVE WITH, GIVEN THIS ACKNOWLEDGED OPENING FROM THE
PRESIDENT. INVITATIONS TO CEREMONIES HAVE YET TO BE
EXTENDED. END SUMMARY.
PRESIDENT ANNOUNCES CEREMONIES
3. A COMMUNIQUE FROM THE PRESIDENCY, ISSUED MORNING
OF JANUARY 4 VIA RADIO RTLM, ANNOUNCED THAT THE
PRESIDENT WAS PREPARED TO TAKE THE OATH OF OFFICE
UNDER THE ARUSHA PEACE ACCORD MORNING OF JANUARY 5.
IT FURTHER SAID HE WAS PREPARED TO SWEAR IN NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY DEPUTIES THE SAME AFTERNOON. IT SAID HE HAD
GIVEN A LIST OF DEPUTIES FOR THE SWEARING-IN TO THE
CURRENT PRIME MINISTER SO SHE COULD INVITE THOSE
CONCERNED TO THE CEREMONY.
CONTESTED LISTS
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RTLM
SUBSEQUENTLY
READ OUT THE LETTER FROM THE
4.
PRESIDENT'S CABINET DIRECTOR TO THE PRIME MINISTER
CONTAINING THE LISTS OF DEPUTIES PROPOSED BY THE
PRESIDENT. AS EXPECTED, IT CONTAINED THE CONTESTED
LIST SUBMITTED BY PL PRESIDENT MUGENZI. THIS LIST IS
UNACCEPTABLE TO THE PL/LANDO WING OF THE PARTY, TO
PM-DESIGNATE FAUSTIN TWAGIRAMUNGU, AND TO THE RPF FOR
ALLEGEDLY INCLUDING MRND AND CDR MEMBERS LOYAL TO
PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA RATHER THAN PERSONS "LEGALLY"
ELECTED BY THE PARTY IN SEPTEMBER. TO EVERYONE'S
SURPRISE, THE PROPOSAL CONTAINED THE MDR LIST
SUBMITTED BY TWAGIRAMUNGU. THIS LIST INCLUDES SOME
PERSONS FAVORABLE TO TWAGIRAMUNGU AND SOME TO THE
OTHER FACTION OF HIS PARTY.
PM-DESIGNATE ACKNOWLEDGES OPENING
5. CHARGE CONTACTED PRIME MINISTER DESIGNATE AT
BEHEST OF WESTERN DIPLOMATS, THE NONCE, AND UNAMIR,
TO DISCUSS HIS REACTION TO THE PRESIDENT'S OVERTURE.
THE DIPLOMATS AND UNAMIR, WHO MET MIDDAY TO REVIEW
THE STATE OF PLAY, WERE WORRIED THAT TWAGIRAMUNGU
MIGHT JEOPARDIZE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MOVEMENT BY
ISSUING AN IRRESPONSIBLE PUBLIC STATEMENT AT A
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
MEETING OF THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY HE CONVOKED FOR
AFTERNOON 1/4.
6. TWAGIRAMUNGU TOLD CHARGE HE HAD CANCELLED THE
DIPLOMATIC MEETING IN FAVOR OF CONTINUING
NEGOTIATIONS ON THE PRESIDENT'S PROPOSAL WHICH HE
SAID HE VIEWED AS A POSITIVE OPENING. THE MAJOR
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PROBLEM: STRONG OBJECTIONS TO THE PL/DEPUTIES LIST
PROVIDED BY MUGENZI. HE HINTED AT TWO OPTIONS UNDER
CONSIDERATION -- HAVING THE TWO FACTIONS SHARE THE
SEATS OR HAVING NO/NO PL DEPUTIES SWORN IN UNTIL THE
PARTY RESOLVES ITS DIFFERENCES. HE HINTED THAT PSD
LEADER GATABAZI WAS AN OBSTACLE TO MODERATION AND
COMPROMISE. HE SAID HE IS SATISFIED WITH THE MDR
LIST, WHICH HE PRESENTED, AND BELIEVES HAVING THE
PRESIDENT TAKE THE OATH OF OFFICE IS A POSITIVE
DEVELOPMENT. TWAGIRAMUNGU SAID HE WAS ON HIS WAY TO
DISCUSS THE ISSUE WITH THE RPF. CHARGE URGED
TWAGIRAMUNGU TO USE THE PRESIDENT'S OPENING TO ARRIVE
AT A POSITIVE SOLUTION TO THE IMPASSE AND ENCOURAGED
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HIM NOT TO LET "EXTREMISTS" DICTATE THE TERMS OF A
SOLUTION. AT GENERAL DAILAIRE'S REQUEST, CHARGE
EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT A RESPONSE TO THE PRESIDENT
WHICH APPEARED TO BLOCK PROGRESS MIGHT BE USED AS A
PROVOCATION FOR VIOLENCE.
7. CHARGE CONTACTED GATABAZI WHO ACKNOWLEDGED THAT
THE PRESIDENT'S WILLINGNESS TO TAKE THE OATH OF
OFFICE AND PROVIDE A FIXED DATE FOR THE CEREMONY WAS
POSITIVE. BUT HE NOTED THE ABSENCE OF REFERENCE TO
FORMATION OF THE GOVERNMENT AS A DRAWBACK. HE SAID
HE HAD PROPOSED THAT THE SWEARING-IN OF THE
GOVERNMENT BE ADDED TO THE JANUARY 5 SCHEDULE. ON
THE PL LIST OF DEPUTIES, GATABAZI REITERATED THE TWO
OPTIONS UNDER CONSIDERATION AND SAID LANDO, LEADER OF
THE PL FACTION OPPOSING MUGENZI, BELIEVES BOTH ARE
REASONABLE: HE IS WILLING TO WAIT FOR THE PL
DEPUTIES TO BE SWORN IN AND HE IS WILLING TO SEEK
WAYS OF SHARING THE ELEVEN PL SEATS. CHARGE
REITERATED THE POINTS MADE TO TWAGIRAMUNGU. GATABAZI
UNCLASSIFIED
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SAID WE ARE NOT GOING TO CLOSE THE DOOR THE
PRESIDENT HAS OPENED."
8. PL PRESIDENT MUGENZI ALONG WITH HIS VICE
PRESIDENT CALLED ON CHARGE AFTERNOON OF 1/5. HE
EXPRESSED TOTAL SATISFACTION WITH THE PRESIDENT'S
PROPOSAL, WITHOUT ACKNOWLEDGING POSSIBLE CHALLENGES
FROM THOSE OPPOSED TO HIS LIST OF DEPUTIES. INSTEAD,
HE SAID THE PARTIES SHOULD ADOPT A POLICY OF
NON-INTERVENTION IN THE AFFAIRS OF OTHER PARTIES AND
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SHOULD INSIST THAT PARTY MEMBERS BE LOYAL TO PARTY
RULES AND IDEOLOGY. HE ACCUSES THE "DISSIDENTS" IN
HIS PARTY OF LACK OF LOYALTY AND OTHER PARTY LEADERS
OF INTERFERENCE. MUGENZI SAID THAT IF THE PL FAILS
TO SAY "NO" NOW TO RPF-MDR-PSD INTERFERENCE, HE
WORRIES WHERE IT WILL END.
9. MUGENZI WENT ON TO TALLY VOTES ALLEGEDLY
CONTROLLED BY THE RPF IN THE GOVERNMENT AND ASSEMBLY
AND TO RAIL AGAINST TWAGIRAMUNGU'S PROPOSAL TO HAVE A
TUTSI HEAD THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE. HE PREDICTED
RWANDANS WILL FEEL DECEIVED WHEN THEY DISCOVER
THEY'VE TRADED CONTROL BY PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA FOR
CONTROL BY THE RPF. HE SAID HAVING TUTSIS IN CONTROL
OF JUSTICE, INTERIOR AND THE GENDARMERIE WOULD RETURN
POWER TO THE TUTSI. WHAT, HE ASKED, DO WE SAY TO THE
HUTU? CHARGE LISTENED, THEN MADE THE SAME POINTS AS
ABOVE. SHE ALSO MADE POINTS MADE WITH PRESIDENT,
PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE, AND RPF PRESIDENT
(REFTEL).
COMMENT
10. THE POLITICAL ALLIANCE BETWEEN TWAGIRAMUNGU OF
THE MDR AND MUGENZI OF THE PL, THAT ENDURED FOR TWO
YEARS AND LED THE INTERNAL POLITICAL CHALLENGE TO
PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA'S TOTAL CONTROL OF RWANDA, IS
DEAD. THE POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION OF MUGENZI, WHOSE
COMMITMENT TO RECONCILIATION AND A MULTI-ETHNIC
SOCIETY SEEMED UNSHAKABLE -- HE LOST A BROTHER TO
ASSASSINS IN THE PROCESS -- IS NOTHING SHORT OF
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INCREDIBLE. IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT TWAGIRAMUNGU
REJECTS HIM AS A MEMBER OF HIS CABINET.
11. THE OPENING FROM THE PRESIDENT IS A HOPEFUL
SIGN. IF THE POLITICAL PARTIES OBJECTING TO THE
PL/MUGENZI LIST CAN FIND A FORMULA THEY CAN LIVE
WITH, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST
TWO OF THE THREE INITIAL TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS IN
PLACE IN TIME FOR SECURITY COUNCIL DELIBERATIONS
JANUARY 5. MUGENZI'S INTRANSIGENCE COULD FOIL THIS.
THERE ARE ALSO SKEPTICS WHO BELIEVE THAT HAVING THE
PRESIDENT THE ONLY "INSTITUTION" DULY SWORN IN UNDER
THE PEACE ACCORD COULD OPEN THE WAY FOR FURTHER
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