Citation
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UNCLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIAL
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ACTION AF-01
KIGALI 04060 01 OF 03 152154Z
INFO LOG-00
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RELEASED IN FULL
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05288A 152255Z /64
R 151520Z NOV 93
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5037
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DHAKA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 03 KIGALI 04060
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, RW
SUBJECT: PROGRESS ON THE GIBE
REF: KIGALI 03734
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
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2. SUMMARY: RWANDAN HARDLINERS LAST WEEK SHARPLY
ATTACKED BELGIAN PARTICIPATION IN UNAMIR, BUT SEEMED
NOT TO HAVE FRIGHTENED THE BELGIANS AWAY. GENERAL
DALLAIRE EXPECTS THE FIRST BELGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND BANGLADESHI TROOPS TO ARRIVE BY DECEMBER 15,
MAKING FORMATION OF THE GTBE FEASIBLE BEFORE THE END
OF THE YEAR. THE MDR INTERNAL CRISIS CONTINUES, BUT
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF EFFORTS AT REUNITING THE
NON-ETHNICS IN THE PARTY. THE PL SPLIT, ON THE OTHER
HAND, INTENSIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND. TWAGIRAMUNGU
REMAINS THE CHOICE OF THE RPF, MRMD, PSD, PL
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: WILLIAM E LANDFAIR
DATE/CASE ID: 18 JAN 2005 200401096
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(MUGENZI) AND PDC TO LEAD THE NEXT GOVERNMENT,
ALTHOUGH HIS LEADERSHIP IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS
EARLIER. COMPLETION OF UNAMIR DEPLOYMENT AND
FORMATION OF THE GTBE ARE URGENTLY REQUIRED TO BEAT
BACK THE HUTU MARDLINERS WHO APPARENTLY WOULD LIKE TO
SCUTTLE THE ENTIRE ARUSHA PROCESS. END SUMMARY.
CHALLENGE TO UNAMIR
3. WIDELY DISTRIBUTED LETTERS NOVEMBER 4 AND
NOVEMBER 8 HAVE CHALLENGED THE UN DECISION TO INVOLVE
BELGIAN TROOPS IN UNAMIR. THE LETTERS, STRIDENTLY
OPPOSED TO BELGIAN PARTICIPATION, DO NOT BEAR A PARTY
LETTERHEAD, BUT ONE OF THEM CARRIES THE SIGNATURE OF
A COUNSELOR TO THE CDR, AND THE CONTENT AND FORM
INDICATE CDR ORIGIN. IN RESPONSE, THE MDR
(TWAGIRAMUNGU), PSD, PL AND PDC HELD A PRESS
CONFERENCE NOVEMBER 11 TO EXPRESS THEIR SUPPORT FOR
BELGIAN PARTICIPATION. THE ABSENCE OF THE MRND FROM
THIS PRESS CONFERENCE WAS NOTED WIDELY AND CONSIDERED
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OMINOUS. PUBLICLY THE MRND HAS DISTANCED ITSELF FROM
THE HARSH CDR CRITICISMS OF THE BELGE AND PLEADED
TECHNICAL REASONS FOR NOT PARTICIPATING IN THE OTHER
PARTIES' REBUTTAL.
4. IN RESPONSE TO THE LETTERS, THE BELGIAN
AMBASSADOR SOUGHT AN AUDIENCE WITH PRESIDENT
HABYARIMANA NOVEMBER 12 TO SEE IF THE PRESIDENT
SHARED THE VIEWS OF THE CDR. HABYARIMANA TOLD
SWINWEN THAT HE WELCOMED BELGIAN PARTICIPATION WITH
HALF A BATTALION, BUT WISHED TO HAVE ANOTHER EUROPEAN
PARTICIPANT FOR THE REST OF THE BATTALION FOR
KIGALI. HABYARIMANA TOLD SWINNEN THAT HE WAS NOT
HAPPY WITH BANGLADESH PARTICIPATION BECAUSE HE FELT
IT WAS NECESSARY TO HAVE PEOPLE WHO SPOKE FRENCH IN
THE KIGALI CONTINGENT AND HE ASKED SWINNEN TO TRY TO
PERSUADE THE RPF TO ACCEPT FRENCH PARTICIPATION IN
UMAMIR. I TOLD SWINNEN SUBSEQUENTLY THAT MY VIEW WAS
THAT THIS WAS A NONSTARTER WITH THE RPF AND TO REOPEN
IT WITH THE RPF COULD CAUSE SERIOUS DELAYS IN THE
WHOLE PROCESS. I DO NOT KNOW IF THE BELGIANS WILL
PURSUE THE HABYARIMANA SUGGESTION FOR FRENCH
PARTICIPATION.
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5. SINCE THE BELGIANS HAVE DECIDED NOT TO SEND A
FULL BATTALION AS REQUESTED BY UNAMIR COMMANDER
GENERAL DALLAIRE, DALLAIRE PLANS TO BRING
BANGLADESHI, EITHER UNAWARE OF HABYARIMANA'S
OBJECTION, OR PREPARED TO OVERRIDE IT. THE
BANGLADESH ADVANCE TEAM ARRIVES THIS WEEK. DALLAIRE
BELIEVES THE BELGIANS WILL BE FULLY DEPLOYED BY
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DECEMBER 1, AND THE BANGLADESH CONTINGENT WILL ARRIVE
BY DECEMBER 15. THIS WOULD ENABLE THE GTBE TO BE
INSTALLED BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
MDR CRISIS CONTINUES
6. THE MDR (PARMEHUTU), STILL CLAIMING TO BE THE
LEGITIMATE PARTY WHICH HAS EXPELLED TWAGIRAMUNGU FROM
ITS RANKS, HAS WIDELY DISTRIBUTED A LETTER TO THE
PRESIDENT, CALLING ON HIM TO REJECT TWAGIRAMUNGU AS
PRIME MINISTER. THE LETTER ACCUSES TWAGIRAMUNGU OF
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ACTION AF-01
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INFO LOG-00
HA-09
NEA-01
PRS-01
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CIAE-00
H-01
NSAE-00
P-01
SA-01
OASY-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
C-01
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050125 151731Z /38
R 151520Z NOV 93
UNCLASSIFIED
EUR-01
ADS-00
PM-02
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FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5038
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DHAKA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 03 KIGALI 04060
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, RW
SUZJECT: PROGRESS ON THE GTBE
EVERY MISDEED WHICH THE MRND AND CDR PRESS ACCUSED
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HIM OF A YEAR AGO, THEN APPEARS TO THREATEN THE
PRESIDENT WITH CHAOS IF HE DOES NOT WITHDRAW
TWAGIRAMUNGU FROM THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP. THE MDR
DIRECTLY CHALLENGES THE ARUSHA AGREEMENT WHICH WOULD
PERMIT THE RPF TO BRING 600 BODYGUARDS TO KIGALI, AND
DIRECTLY ACCUSES THE RPF OF HAVING OTHER THAN
PEACEFUL INTENTIONS. A SUBSEQUENT MEMORANDUM,
DISTRIBUTION UNKNOWN, DELIVERED TO ME BY MDR
PARMEHUTU FAITHFUL, CALLS FOR THE REOPENING OF TWO
ARTICLES OF THE ARUSHA ACCORD BEFORE THE GTBE IS
FORMED.
7. MEANTIME, TWAGIRAMUNGU CONTINUES TO ACT AS THE
PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE. HE CHAIRED A MEETING IN
KIMIHIRA WITH THE RPF WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY THE
DIPLOMATIC CORPS UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE UNDP TO
DISCUSS THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF THE COUNTRY. IN THIS
MEETPCO TWAGIRAMUNGU WAS CLEARLY ANNOINTED BY THE RPF
REPRESENTATIVE WHO EXPRESSED THE RPF'S GRATITUDE FOR
TWAGIRAMUNGU'S PRESENCE AND NOTED THAT THEY HAD
CALLED ON TO CHAIR THE MEETING. FROM THE MEETING
EMERGED A JOINT COMMISSION TO DEAL WITH QUESTIONS
CONCERNING THE ROUND TABLE TO BE SPONSORED BY THE
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
UNDP, AND AGRSEMENT ON A JOINT DELEGATION TO GO TO
OPEN NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE WORLD BANK ON THE
STRUCTURAL ADJUUTVENT SECOND TRANCHE. THIS OPEN
COLLABORATION BETWEEN TWAGIRAMUNGU AND THE RPF DRIVES
HIS PARTY'S PARMEHUTU WING BANAMAS. THEY ACCUSE HIM
OF HAVING BEEN AN RPF AGENT FROM THE BEGINNING AND
NOW TREAT HIM AS A GREATER ENEMY THAN EITHER
HABYARIMANA OR THE RPF.
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KIGALI 04060 02 OF 03 151540Z
8. TWAGIRAMUNGU HAS MET BRIEFLY WITH NGULINZIRA, AND
CONTINUES TO HOPE THAT THE MDR WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTLY REUNITED BEFORE THE GTBE FINALLY EMERGES.
THE PL COLLAPSES
9. THE TUTSI WING OF THE PL HAS HELD A "NATIONAL
CONGRESS" NOVEMBER 13 AND GR TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM
THE HUTU LEADERSHIP LED BY PARTY PRESIDENT JUSTIN
MUGENZI. THEY ANNOUNCED THE ELECTION OF A COMPLETELY
NEW EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE. MANY EFFORTS WERE MADE TO
AVOID THIS RUPTURE, INCLUDING A PARTY LEADERSHIP
MEETING NOVEMBER11,WHICH MIGHT HAVE POSTPONED THE
PARTY CONGRESS, BUT ENDED UP IN TOTAL DISAGREEMENT.
10. EARLIER IN THE WEEK, MUGENZI CAME TO THE EMBASSY,
TOLD THE DCM THAT HIS LIFE WAS THREATENED BY THE
LANDO CLIQUE. THIS THREAT HAD BEEN CONVEYED TO HIM
BY THREE WITNESSES WHO SAID THEY HAD BEEN PRESENT IN
A MEETING IN WHICH THEY DECIDED THAT THE ANSWER TO
THE MUGENZI PROBLEM WAS TO ASSASSINATE HIM. HE EVEN
HAD DETAILS OF WHO WAS GOING TO PULL THE TRIGGER. I
CONFRONTED LANDO WITH THIS ALLEGATION THE FOLLOWING
DAY, ALONG WITH A FERVENT APPEAL TO THE TWO OF THEM
TO PUT THEIR DIFFERENCES BEHIND THEM AND RESTORE THE
PARTY WHICH HAD BEEN SO IMPORTANT TO THE PROCESS OF
LEADING TOWARD PEACE AND MULTIPARTY GOVERNMENT IN
RWANDA. LANDO, OF COURSE, DENIED THE DEATH THJEAT
AND PROMISED TO REASSURE MUGENZI. BUT LANDO WAS
ADAMAN THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PARTY MUST BE ABLE
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TO CONTROL THE PARTY, ALTHOUGH HE IS STILL WILLING TO
PERMIT MUGENZI TO BE PRESIDENT OF THE PARTY. MUGENZI
REFUSES TO HAVE THE PARTY TAKEN AWAY FROM HIM BY
UNGRATEFUL TUTSIS.
11. MUGENZI INSISTS THAT HE AND HIS FACTION WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD THE PL SEATS IN THE GOVERNMENT AND
WILL APPOINT THE PL MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY. HE INSISTS THAT PL DEPUTIES ELECTED BY
PREFECTORAL COMMITTEES WILL ONLY BE ACCEPTABLE IF
THEY REMAIN LOYAL TO THE PARTY (HIS) LEADERSHIP. HE
ALSO INSISTS THAT HE WILL HAVE A TUTSI CABINET MEMBER
TO REPLACE LANDO, AND TUTSIS MEMBERS OF THE NATIONAL
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ACTION AF-01
KIGALI 04060 03 OF 03 152157Z
INFO LOG-00
HA-09
NEA-01
PRS-01
USIE-00
CIAE-00
H-01
NSAE-00
P-01
SA-01
C-01
TEDE-00
NSCE-00
SNP-00
RPE-01
OASY-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
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10-16
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01C-02 OMB-01 PA-01
TRSE-00
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SP-00
/043W
CORE-00
052893 152255Z /63
R 151520Z NOV 93
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5039
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DHAKA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
UNCLASSIFIED
EUR-01
ADS-00
PM-02
T-00
UNCLASSIFIED
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 03 OF 03 KIGALI 04060
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, RW
SUBJECT: PROGRESS ON THE GTBE
ASSEMBLY, THEREBY KEEPING FAITH WITH HIS ORIGINAL
OBJECTIVES FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY, IN SPITE OF THE
TAKEOVER EFFORT.
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KIGALI 04060 03 OF 03 152157Z
THE SEARCH FOR LEADERSHIP
12. FOR THE MOMENT, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, THE
RPF, THE PRESIDENT OF RWANDA AND THE CURRENT
LEADERSHIP OF THE PSD, PL AND PDC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FAUSTIN TWAGIRAMUNGU AS PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE.
UNAMIR COMMANDER DALLAIRE HAS ALSO WORKED WITH HIM IN
THE PREPARATION OF THE UN'S MISSION. BUT MANY HAVE
BEGUN TO QUESTION WHETHER TWAGIRAMUNGU IS PROVIDING
THE LEADERSHIP THAT IS NECESSARY TO EMERGE FROM THE
CURRENT MORASS. DALLAIRE TOLD ME THAT WHEN HE MET
WITH TWAGIRAMUNGU IN AUGUST ON HIS RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION, HE WAS HIGHLY IMPRESSED WITH THE LEADERSHIP
AND MOTIVATION OF TWAGIRAMUNGU. HE HAS SAID THAT
LATELY HE IS WONDERING WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THIS
LEADER. SOME UNCERTAINTY ALSO APPEARED IN
TWAGIRAMUNGU'S CHAIRMANSHIP OF THE KINIHIRA MEETING,
WHERE HE SEEMED TO HAVE LESS COMMAND OF BOTH THE
SUBJECT AND THE PARTICIPANTS THAN WAS CALLED FOR. IN
A PRIVATE ASIDE AT THE MEETING, TWAGIRAMUNGU
EXPRESSED DEEP DISAPPOINTMENT IN HIS POLITICAL
ALLIES, AND SAID QUITE FRANKLY THAT IF HE HAD KNOWN
WHAT HE WAS GETTING INTO WHEN HE STARTED INTO THIS
BUSINESS, HE WOULD HAVE STAYED OUT OF POLITICS
ALTOGETHER.
13. ON A HOPEFUL NOTE, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME OF THE MDR LEADERS WHO HAVE FOLLOWED THE
SO-CALLED PARMEHUTU BRANCH UNTIL RECENTLY, ARE NOW
OPEN TO A COMPROMISE WITH TWAGIRAMUNGU. PEOPLE SUCH
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AS FOREIGN MINISTER NGULINZIRA HAVE FINALLY AWAKENED
TO THE FACT THAT SOME OF THEIR ALLIES IN THE PARTY
ARE THOROUGHLY RACIST IN THEIR APPROACH TO RWANDAN
POLITICS. THIS MAY OFFER AN OPPORTUMITY FOR
TWAGIRAMUNGU. WE UNDERSTAND THAT HE AND NGULINZIRA
AND OTHERS PLANNED TO MEET OVER THE WEEKEND TO TRY TO
FIND A COMMON POSITION.
14. COMMENT: THERE IS A DETERMINED GROUP OF HUTU
SUPREMISTS WHOSE FEAR OF POTENTIAL TUTSI DOMINATION
IS THE MOST IMPORTANT, AND FOR SOME THE ONLY
POLITICAL FACTOR OF SIGNIFICANCE. THESE PEOPLE HAVE
BEEN UNRECONCILED TO THE ARUSHA ACCORD FROM THE
BEGINNING, AND NOW ARE GROPING FOR AN EFFECTIVE MEANS
OF DERAILING THE ACCORD WHICH OFFERS AN HONORABLE
PLACE FOR TUTSIS IN RWANDAN SOCIETY. FIRST, THEY
TRIED TO EXPLOIT THE BURUNDI TRAGEDY TO UNITE HUTUS
BEHIND THEM IN RWANDA. THIS HAS NOT SUCCEEDED. NOW
THE TACTIC IS TO GO AFTER THE BELGIANS HOPING TO
EXPLOIT POST-COLONIAL ANTIPATHIES TO PREVENT THE
PROMPT ARRIVAL OF THE UNAMIR FORCE. SHOULD THEY
SUCCEED IN SUBSTANTIALLY DELAYING UNAMIR, THEY MAY
HAVE A CHANCE TO UNRAVEL THE WHOLE PROCESS.
15. WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT THE BEST WAY TO
PROMOTE A RESOLUTION OF SOME OF THESE POLITICAL
PROBLEMS IS TO PRESS AHEAD RAPIDLY WITH THE
DEPLOYMENT OF UNAMIR AND THE FORMATION OF THE GTBE.
WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT GENERAL DALLAIRE IS A
CAPABLE AND DYNAMIC INDIVIDUAL WHO WILL BE ABLE TO
PULL TOGETHER A KIGALI BATTALION SOON. END COMMENT.
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