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ACTION AF-01
DAR ES 02474 01 OF 03 111116Z
INFO LOG-00
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USIE-00
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BDFA2C 111116Z /38
0 111112Z MAY 93
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1324
AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 02474
STATE FOR AF/C-FULLER, AF/RA
ALSO PARIS FOR PERLOW, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PGOV, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: ARUSHA TALKS: END OF MILITARY TALKS NEAR?
THE FOLLOWING REPORT WAS PROVIDED BY THE US OBSERVER
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AT THE ARUSHA TALKS, JOYCE LEADER.
1.
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2. SUMMARY: THE GOR AND RPF DELEGATIONS REPORTED TO
A PLENARY SESSION ON MAY 8, 1993. THEY HAVE AGREED
ON AN AMBITIOUS DEMOBILIZATION PROCESS THAT WOULD
REINSERT ALL DEMOBILIZED SOLDIERS INTO RWANDAN
SOCIETY WITHIN ONE YEAR. THE PARTIES ARE TURNING NOW
TO OUTSTANDING MILITARY ISSUES, FORCE PROPORTIONS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: CHARLES L DARIS
DATE/CASE ID: 10 JAN 2006 200103014
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BEING THE MOST CRUCIAL. THE POSITIONS OF THE TWO
SIDES ON AN INTERNATIONAL SUPERVISORY FORCE REMAIN
STATIONARY. THEY HOPE, HOWEVER, TO MOVE ON TO
REFUGEE ISSUES IN A WEEK OR 10 DAYS. THE FACILITATOR
AND OBSERVERS ARE CONTEMPLATING THE FUTURE OF THE
JPMC, AND HOW TO KEEP THEIR ROLE ALIVE DURING
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PEACE ACCORD. END SUMMARY.
DEMOBILIZATION PROCESS
3. THE RPF PRESENTED A PAPER (NOT YET AVAILABLE) TO
THE FACILITATOR AND OBSERVERS IN PLENARY SESSION ON
MAY 8, OUTLINING THE AGREED PRINCIPLES, MODALITIES,
AND FOLLOW-ON PROCEDURES FOR THE DEMOBILIZATION
PROCESS. THE AIM IS TO FIND A SUITABLE PLACEMENT IN
THE SOCIETY FOR EACH DEMOBILIZED GOR AND RPF SOLDIER
ACCORDING TO HIS QUALIFICATIONS AND NEEDS WITHIN A
STRICTLY SPECIFIED TIME FRAME. CATEGORIES ENVISIONED
INCLUDE: THOSE NEEDING NO ASSISTANCE; THOSE
QUALIFYING FOR THE CIVIL SERVICE; LONG AND SHORT TERM
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TRAINING CANDIDATES; HANDICAPPED; THOSE WHOSE
REINSERTION DEPENDS ON THE REFUGEE RETURN PROGRAM;
AND OTHERS. THE PLAN CALLS FOR PLACEMENT TO BEGIN
ABOUT SIX MONTHS AFTER THE SOLDIERS ARRIVE IN
ASSEMBLY-POINTS, DEPENDING ON THEIR CATEGORY, AND BE
COMPLETED WITHIN THREE TO FOUR MONTHS THEREAFTER.
ALL DEMOBILIZED PERSONNEL ARE TO RECEIVE VETERAN'S
BENEFITS, INVOLVING FREE MEDICAL CARE, TAX
EXEMPTIONS, FREE SCHOOLING FOR TWO CHILDREN, FOR A
LENGTH OF TIME YET TO BE DETERMINED. EACH
DEMOBILIZED SOLDIER IS TO RECEIVE A LUMP SUM PAYMENT
BEFORE LEAVING THE ASSEMBLY POINT, RANGING BETWEEN
ABOUT RWANDAN FRANC 100,000 (USD 700) AND RWANDAN
FRANC 500,000 (USD 3,500), DEPENDING ON RANK.
4. STILL OUTSTANDING IS THE ISSUE OF WHETHER THOSE
SOLDIERS IDENTIFIED FOR DEMOBILIZATION WILL BE
SEPARATED FROM THOSE SLATED TO REMAIN IN THE ARMY
PRIOR TO TAKING UP AN ASSIGNED POSITION IN THE
CIVILIAN SECTOR. THE GOR CONTINUES TO ARGUE FOR
SEPARATION ON GROUNDS THAT THEIR NEEDS WILL
IMMEDIATELY BECOME DIFFERENT. THE RPF CONTINUES TO
SEE NO JUSTIFICATION FOR SEPARATION.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
5. COMMENT: NEITHER SIDE HAS OFFERED U.S. OBSERVER
A CONVINCING ARGUMENT FOR ITS PREFERENCE OR THE
SEPARATION ISSUE. INDEED, THE RPF SAID IT WAS QUITE
CONTENT IF ITS POSITION SUGGESTS A STRATEGY TO KEEP
ITS FORCES TOGETHER TO USE IN CASE THE IMPLEMENTATION
PROCESS FALTERED. IN RESPONSE TO OBSERVER'S COMMENT
ABOUT THE AMBITIOUSNESS OF THE PLAN, THE GOR NOTED
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THAT IT COULD BE MODIFIED BY CONSENSUS OF THE
ENLARGED GOVERNMENT. END COMMENT.
OUTSTANDING ISSUES
6. THE SIXTEEN POINTS. THE GOR AND RPF HAVE DRAWN
UP A LIST OF SIXTEEN POINTS OF DISAGREEMENT ON
MILITARY ISSUES. A GOR DELEGATE, WHO HELPED DEVELOP
THE LIST, SAID MOST CAN BE EASILY RESOLVED. FORCES
PROPORTIONS REMAINS THE CENTRAL ISSUE. AMBASSADOR
MPUNGWE WILL CONSULT TANZANIAN AUTHORITIES IN DAR ES
SALAAM MAY 10 ON HOW TO PROCEED WITH THIS ISSUE IN
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ACTION AF-01
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INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01
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BDFA6C 111119Z /38
O 111112Z MAY 93
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1325
AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 02 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 02474
STATE FOR AF/C-FULLER, AF/RA
ALSO PARIS FOR PERLOW, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PGOV, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: ARUSHA TALKS: END OF MILITARY TALKS NEAR?
LIGHT OF THEIR DISCUSSION WITH BOTH SIDES. (NOTE:
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RWANDAN DEFENSE MINISTER GASANA VISITED DAR MAY 7
WITH REGARD TO THIS SUBJECT. END NOTE.) MPUNGWE
TOLD OBSERVERS HE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ARUSHA WITH
THE TANZANIAN DEFENSE MINISTER WHO WILL PARTICIPATE
IN DISCUSSIONS ON FORCE PROPORTIONS.
SUPERVISORY ORGANS
7. INSTEAD OF PROCEEDING TO DISCUSSION OF THIS
AGENDA ITEM, THE TWO SIDES HAVE PUT IT ON THE LIST OF
OUTSTANDING ISSUES. THIS IMPLIES THERE HAS BEEN NO
MOVEMENT SINCE THE TWO SIDES DEADLOCKED SOME WEEKS
AGO OVER WHETHER THE UN OR THE OAU WOULD LEAD AN
INTERNATIONAL FORCE TO SUPERVISE IMPLEMENTATION OF
THE PEACE ACCORD. THE RPF CONTINUES TO BE VAGUE
ABOUT WHETHER IT WOULD ACCEPT A UN LED FORCE.
UGANDA'S OBSERVER TOLD THE OTHER OBSERVERS THAT
UGANDA HAS SENT SIGNALS TO THE UN THROUGH DIPLOMATIC
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
CHANNELS (HE WOULDN'T ACCEPT "DEMARCHE") ENCOURAGING
THE UN TO SUPPORT OAU INVOLVEMENT IN RWANDA (HE
IMPLIED SUPPORT FROM START TO FINISH, NOT JUST FOR AN
EXPANDED GOMN). MPUNGWE'S DEPUTY, HOWEVER, ASSURED
THE U.S. OBSERVER THAT TANZANIA SUPPORTS A UN FORCE
AND THAT OAU OBSERVERS ARE EXAMINING COOPERATION
MODALITIES AS THE BASIS FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH
THE TWO PARTIES AND OTHER OBSERVERS.
B. THE GOMN. BOTH SIDES ARE PREPARING LETTERS OF
SUPPORT TO THE OAU/SYG, AS PROPOSED BY THE
FACILITATOR, BUT THEY HAVE NOT YET BEEN SENT. ONCE
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THEY ARE, TANZANIA MAY PRESS FOR AN OAU INITIATIVE
WITH THE UN/SYG TO URGE UN COLLABORATION WITH THE OAU
IN RWANDA.
9. INTERNATIONAL FORCE FOR KIGALI. THE TWO SIDES
HAVE COMPLETED A JOINT PAPER TO GUIDE DISCUSSION ON
THIS ISSUE AT THE HIGH LEVEL MEETING STILL EXPECTED
TO BE HELD IN RWANDA SOMETIME SOON. AS DESCRIBED TO
U.S. OBSERVER, THIS PAPER PROPOSES THAT THE MEETING
REVIEW: 1) THE STATUS OF EFFORTS TO EXPAND THE GOMN;
2) THE STATUS OF EFFORTS TO DEVELOP AN INTERNATIONAL
FORCE TO REPLACE THE FRENCH IN KIGALI, AND, 3)
ALTERNATIVE ARRANGEMENTS FOR NO.2, SHOULD THESE
EFFORTS PROVE INSUFFICIENT.
REFUGEE DISCUSSIONS: COMING SOON
10. UPON HIS RETURN FROM DAR ES SALAAM, AMBASSADOR
MPUNGWE PLANS TO REVIEW WITH EACH PARTY THE LIST OF
OUTSTANDING ISSUES AND SET A TARGET DATE FOR
BEGINNING REFUGEE DISCUSSIONS. THE THINKING NOW IS
THAT MAY 17 OR LATER THAT WEEK IS LIKELY. SOME
OBSERVERS BELIEVE THIS ESTIMATE RESTS ON AN OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC ASSESSMENT ON THE ABILITY OF THE TWO SIDES
TO AGREE ON FORCE PROPORTIONS.
11. THE RPF SIDE BELIEVES THE GOVERNMENT HAS
UNDERESTIMATED THE DIFFICULTY OF THE REFUGEE ISSUE
BECAUSE IT HAS "NOT SERIOUSLY STUDIED THE ISSUE." AN
RPF DELEGATE TOLD U.S. OBSERVER THAT AN RPF SURVEY IN
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UGANDA, BURUNDI, AND TANZANIA INDICATED THAT MOST OF
THE REFUGEES WANT TO "GO HOME" TO RWANDA. (NOTE: IN
TANZANIA, AT LEAST, THIS FINDING CONTRADICTS THAT OF
UNHCR. END NOTE). THE RPF DELEGATE SAID HE HAD
ADVISED THE GOVERNMENT TO PLAN FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS,
WITH ONE MILLION RETURNEES AS THE HIGH ESTIMATE.
(NOTE: GOVERNMENT PLANNING IS BASED ON AN ESTIMATED
80,000 RETURNEES, 50,000 RURAL AND 30,000 URBAN.)
THE RPF DELEGATE PREDICTED HIS OWN FATHER WOULD
REMAIN IN UGANDA WHERE THE GRANDCHILDREN ARE,
RETURNING TO RWANDA AS A VISITOR TO SEE HIS SISTER
AND NEPHEWS.
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ACTION AF-01
DAR ES 02474 03 OF 03 111119Z
OASY-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
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/045W
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BDFA89 111120Z /38
O 1111122 MAY 93
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1326
AMEMBASSY KIGALI PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
INFO LOG-00
HA-09
NSAE-00
P-01
USIE-00
UNCLASSIFIED
EUR-01
ADS-00
PRS-01
T-00
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY
UNCLASSIFIED
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 03 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 02474
STATE FOR AF/C-FULLER, AF/RA
ALSO PARIS FOR PERLOW, BRUSSELS FOR DUBROW
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, PGOV, OAU, RW, TZ
SUBJECT: ARUSHA TALKS: END OF MILITARY TALKS NEAR?
12.
THE RPF DELEGATE RAISED ONE POTENTIALLY
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CONTENTIOUS REFUGEE ISSUE. HE SAID THE RPF'S
"STARTING POSITION" IS THAT ALL REFUGEES MUST RETURN
BEFORE ELECTIONS CAN BE HELD. SIGNALLING EVENTUAL
COMPROMISE, HE ACKNOWLEDGED THE "PRACTICAL
DIFFICULTIES" INVOLVED. BUT, HE SAID, IF AT THE END
OF THE TRANSITION PERIOD THE CLIMATE IN THE COUNTRY
IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO REFUGEE RETURN, IF THE GOVERNMENT
HAS NOT TAKEN THE STEPS NECESSARY TO PREPARE FOR
RETURN, IF NO REFUGEES HAVE RETURNED, THEN ELECTIONS
CANNOT BE HELD. ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT RULE OUT
ORGANIZING VOTING OUTSIDE RWANDA--INDEED HE SAID THE
RPF COULD DO IT--HE SAID THE RPF WOULD NEVER ADVOCATE
SUCH A SOLUTION. THE GOVERNMENT, ON THE OTHER HAND,
IS ASSUMING ALL REFUGEES CANNOT BE BACK BEFORE THE
END OF THE TRANSITION AND THAT SOME SORT OF ABSENTEE
VOTING WILL BE NECESSARY.
WHITHER THE JPMC?
13. AT AN OBSERVER'S MEETING MAY 7, THE FUTURE OF
THE JOINT POLITICAL MILITARY COMMISSION (JPMC) AND
THE ROLE OF OBSERVERS IN MONITORING IMPLEMENTATION OF
THE PEACE ACCORD CAME UP, REVEALING POTENTIAL
DIVISION AMONG OBSERVERS. THE OAU OBSERVERS SAID IT
WAS TIME TO STRENGTHEN THE JPMC. THE UGANDAN
OBSERVER SUPPORTED THIS, SAYING THE JPMC'S
COMPOSITION AND STATUS SHOULD BE REVIEWED.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
14. THE TANZANIAN FACILITATOR SAID HE HAD TRIED
UNSUCCESSFULLY TO HAVE THE TWO PARTIES EXAMINE THIS
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QUESTION IN DECEMBER. HE ALSO RECALLED THAT THE JULY
12 CEASE-FIRE ACCORD (ART.IV) GIVES THE JPMC
RESPONSIBILITY FOR MONITORING IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
PEACE ACCORD. HE SAID THIS STRUCTURE COULD BE USEFUL
IN THE IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS, ESPECIALLY IF THERE
WERE A BREAKDOWN, AND WOULD PROVIDE AN ON-GOING ROLE
FOR THE OBSERVERS. HE ALSO NOTED THE NAMIBIAN CASE,
BY WAY OF CONTRAST, WHERE THE COUNTRY GUARANTORS OF
THE PEACE ACCORD WERE INTIMATELY ENGAGED IN GETTING
THE PROCESS BACK ON TRACK AFTER SWAPO'S SURPRISE
APRIL, 1989 OFFENSIVE.
15. THE U.S. OBSERVER ENDORSED THE IMPORTANCE OF A
JPMC AND THE USEFULNESS OF HAVING A STRUCTURE WITHIN
WHICH OBSERVERS WOULD MAINTAIN A ROLE IN
IMPLEMENTATION. SHE QUERIED WHETHER THE JPMC WOULD
HAVE THE APPROPRIATE COMPOSITION FOR THIS ROLE ONCE
THE ENLARGED GOVERNMENT WAS IN PLACE. TANZANIA
OBSERVED THAT A STRUCTURE PITTING THE RPF AGAINST THE
GOVERNMENT, AS DOES THE JPMC, WOULD SEEM
INAPPROPRIATE.
16. COMMENT: THE OBSERVERS WILL RETURN TO THE
QUESTION OF THE FUTURE OF THE JPMC AND THE ROLE OF
OBSERVERS IN IMPLEMENTATION OVERSIGHT. COMMENTS
WELCOME.
DE VOS
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