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ORIGIN AF-01
STATE 106852 221501Z
INFO LOG-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 C-01
OASY-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00
EUR-01 HA-09
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TEDE-00 INR-00 10-16
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ADS-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 01C-02 01G-04 OMB-01
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/041R
DRAFTED BY:AF/C:RAFLATEN:TTD
APPROVED BY:AF:PBUSHNELL
P:BTHOMAS
AF/C:ARENDER
AF/C:DRAWSON
IO/UNP:SZELLE
AF/RA:LSHURTLEFF
3F2A2D 221502Z /38
P 220738Z APR 94
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 8370-71 PRIORITY
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 4047-48 PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY BONN 3357-58
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 3141-42
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 4887-88
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 9307-08
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1351-52
AMEMBASSY PARIS 4007-08
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7665-66
CONFIDENTIALSTATE 106852
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, TZ, RW
SUBJECT: ARUSHA TALKS 1994
REF: STATE 98062
1.
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2.
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE IS FOR USE AS APPROPRIATE BY U.S.
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OBSERVER COLONEL TONY MARLEY AND AMB. RAWSON DURING THE
REVIVED ARUSHA TALKS ON RWANDA.
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: HARMON E KIRBY
DATE/CASE ID: 09 JAN 2008 200103014
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3. REFTEL EXPRESSED OUR FIRM VIEW THAT THE ARUSHA PROCESS
PROVIDES THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF RESTORING ORDER IN
RWANDA. THE ARUSHA AGREEMENT PROVIDES BOTH THE PRINCIPLES
FOR AN AGREEMENT AND THE ONLY AGREED FRAMEWORK FOR
NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES. IT IS OUR FURTHER
VIEW THAT THE FACILITATOR AND THE OBSERVERS SHOULD DO
EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO RETAIN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE OF THE
AGREED ARUSHA TEXT. THE PARTIES SHOULD BE URGED NOT TO
REOPEN ISSUES IN THE AGREEMENT FOR THEIR CONVENIENCE OR
POLITICAL ADVANTAGE. THEY SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED TO DISCUSS
ONLY THOSE ISSUES WHICH HAVE CLEARLY BEEN FORCED INTO
CONSIDERATION BY THE EVENTS SINCE APRIL 6. WITH THIS IN
MIND, WE BELIEVE THE U.S. CAN PLAY A USEFUL ROLE IN
ENCOURAGING THE PROCESS IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
4. CEASEFIRE - HOPEFULLY THE UN WILL HAVE BROKERED SOME
FORM OF LOCAL CEASEFIRE BEFORE THE ARUSHA TALKS GET
STARTED. BUT SINCE THE UNAMIR SEEMS TO BE WORKING AT THE
MILITARY LEVEL, IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO CONFIRM THE
CEASEFIRE AT THE POLITICAL LEVEL AND SEEK TO ASSURE THAT
IT IS NATIONWIDE.
5. INVESTIGATIONS - BOTH SIDES WILL WANT AN INVESTIGATION
OF THE CRASH - TO PROVE THE OTHER SIDE DID IT. THE
PROBLEMS HERE ARE LIKELY TO BE TO DEFINE THE TERMS IN A
NEUTRAL MANNER, AND TO FIND AN APFROPRIATE INTERNATIONAL
BODY TO DO THE INVESTIGATING. THE RFF IS GOING TO INSIST
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ON ACCOUNTABILITY FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CARNAGE IN
KIGALI. THEY HAVE ALREADY PUBLICLY CALLED FOR THE
DISBANDING OF THE PRESIDENTIAL GUARD.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY LACK ADEQUATE EVIDENCE FOR JUDICIAL REVIEW
OF THE GUARDS, THE COMMON KNOWLEDGE OF THE NEFARIOUS ROLE
OF THE GUARD IS SO PERVASIVE THAT WE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
RPF ON THIS ISSUE. THE INTERM PRESIDENT CAN BE GUARDED BY
GENDARMES; AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MINISTERS AND OTHER
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS.
ON THE BROADER QUESTIONS
INDICATIONS THAT THE RPF
ITS OWN HANDS TO QUICKLY
PRESIDENTIAL GUARD WHICH
OF ACCOUNTABILITY, THERE ARE
HAS PLANS TO TAKE MATTERS INTO
EXECUTE LEADERS OF THE
IT HAS IDENTIFIED. WE SHOULD
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SEEK TO DISSUADE THE RPF FROM UNILATERAL "JUSTICE" WHICH
WOULD ONLY PROVOKE ADDITIONAL OUTRAGES AGAINST TUTSIS IN
THE AREAS STILL UNDER ARMY CONTROL. WE SHOULD SUPPORT THE
CONCEPT OF AN INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION AND AN
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL. OUR EXPECTATION WOULD BE THAT
RELATIVELY SMALL NUMBERS OF RESPONSIBLE OFFICIALS MIGHT BE
IDENTIFIED; EVERY EFFORT SHOULD BE MADE TO AVOID THE
IMPRESSION OF RETRIBUTION. THEREFORE THE DOCUMENT
CREATING THE INVESTIGATING BODY SHOULD MAKE A REFERENCE TO
INVESTIGATING EXCESSES BY ALL PARTIES. THE RPF WILL
RESIST, WITH THEIR TYPICAL RIGHTEOUS DENIALS, BUT MAY
AGREE TO SOME FORMULA IF CONVINCED THAT OUR OBJECTIVE IS
TO AVOID THE IMPRESSION OF RETRIBUTION WHICH COULD LEAD TO
EVEN MORE VIOLENCE FROM THE OTHER SIDE.
6. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS - OBVIOUSLY THIS IS THE CRUX OF
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THE MATTER. THE RPF IS GOING TO INSIST ON CHANGING PARTS
OF THE ARUSHA AGREEMENT RELATING TO THE POWER SHARING
FORMULAS, AS A RESULT OF EXECUTIONS OF KEY OPPOSITION
POLITICIANS AND THE SPLITS IN THE MDR AND FL PARTIES.
THIS DEBATE WENT ON FOR MONTHS IN KIGALI, BUT WAS NEARLY
RESOLVED TWICE BEFORE THE APRIL 6 TRAGEDY. OUR OBJECTIVE
SHOULD BE TO GET BACK AS CLOSE TO THE NEARLY AGREED
FORMULA AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.
IT WON'T BE EASY. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THE POLITICAL
PARTIES IDENTIFIED IN THE ARUSHA AGREEMENT NO LONGER
EXIST. IF SO, THE AGREEMENT WOULD HAVE NO FURTHER
UTILITY, AND THE WHOLE PROCESS WOULD HAVE TO GO BACK TO
SQUARE ONE. WE BELIEVE THAT IS AN UNACCEPTABLE POSITION,
AND WE THEREFORE MUST RETAIN THE PARTY STRUCTURE OF THE
ARUSHA AGREEMENT, HOWEVER TENUOUS. EACH PARTY SHOULD BE
ASKED TO TRY TO RECONSTITUTE ITSELF IDEOLOGICALLY AND
ETHNICALLY ALONG THE LINES OF ITS COMPOSITIONS ON APRIL 5,
REPLACING DECEASED LEADERS WITH PERSON OF SIMILAR
PERSUASION.
IF THE ARUSHA AGREEMENT, INCLUDING THE COMPOSITION OF THE
GOVERNMENT, CANNOT BE QUICKLY AGREED, A FALL BACK WOULD BE
TO SEEK INITIAL AGREEMENT ON THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY LIST.
WE BELIEVE THAT MORE OF THE DEPUTIES-DESIGNATE ARE STILL
ALIVE THAN MINISTERS, AND THAT IT MAY BE EASIER TO AGREE
ON REPLACEMENT FOR THE DECEASED DEPUTIES THAN FOR
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MINISTERIAL NOMINEES. IF THERE COULD BE PROMPT AGREEMENT
ON THE NEW ASSEMBLY, WHILE UNAMIR IS STILL IN THE COUNTRY,
THE NEGOTIATION ON THE CABINET COULD BE MOVED TO KIGALI
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WHERE THE ASSEMBLY WOULD HAVE THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR
PUTTING TOGETHER THE GOVERNMENT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE
ASSEMBLY WOULD BECOME THE RESPONSIBLE INSTITUTION UNTIL
IT INSTALLS A GOVERNMENT. AS SUCH IT MIGHT BE MORE ABLE TO
DEAL WITH THE HARD DECISIONS ON CABINET POSTS THAN
NEGOTIATING TEAMS IN ARUSHA.
7. THE PRESIDENCY - SO FAR WHAT WE HEAR IS THAT THE RPF
HAS REJECTED THE INTERIM PRESIDENT. WE HAVE NOT HEARD HOW
THE RPF WOULD PROPOSE TO REPLACE HIM. HE IS THE LEGAL
SUCCESSOR TO HABYARIMANA UNDER THE OLD CONSTITUTION, AND
ARUSHA ASSIGNS THE PRESIDENCY TO THE MRND. THE RPF SHOULD
BE URGED TO CONSIDER CAREFULLY WHETER THEY WANT THE MRND
TO APPOINT SOMEONE ELSE. IT COULD WELL BE THAT THE MRND
WOULD ELECT SOMEONE TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. SINDIKUBWABO
COULD START TO LOOK LIKE A MODERATE. EVEN ON HIS OWN
MERITS, IT IS PROBABLY NOT WORTH IT FOR THE RPF TO MAKE A
IG ISSUE OUT OF THE INTERIM PRESIDENT. HE IS 71 YEARS
OLD AND NOT VERY ACTIVE, HE IS FROM BUTARE, NOT THE
HEARTLAND OF THE HARDLINERS, AND PRESUMABLY CAN BE
INFLUENCED BY OTHERS FROM THE SOUTH. HE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT PUBLIC SUPPORTER OF DEMOCRACY. YES HE WAS
LOYAL TO HABYARIMANA, AND HE MAY STILL BE INFLUENCED BY
THE PRESIDENTIAL GUARD, BUT THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE
THAT HE CAN BE INFLUENCED BY MODERATES, AND HE SEEMS
SUBJECT TO INFLUENCE BY WESTERN DIPLOMATS. ONE FURTHER
OBSERVATION ON SINDIKUBWABO: WHEN THE CND WAS IN SESSION,
HE SCRUPULOUSLY OBSERVED PROCEDURES OF THE ASSEMBLY EVEN
AS DEPUTIES BEGAN TO DEFECT FROM HIS MRND PARTY.
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8. ADDRESSEES MAY SHAPE THESE VIEWS WITH OTHER OBSERVERS
AND THEIR BACKSTOPPER IN CAPITALS IN THE HOPES OF CREATING
A CONSENSUS AMONG OBSERVERS AND THE FACILITATOR ON HOW TO
MOVE THE PROCESS BACK FROM THE BATTLEFIELD TO THE
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ARGAINING TABLE.
9. BUJUMBURA MINIMIZED CONSIDERED.
CHRISTOPHER
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