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ORIGIN AF-01
STATE 190873 232135Z
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DRAFTED BY: AF/C:CSFULLER:CSF
APPROVED BY: AF/C:RMPRINGLE
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EE914 232136Z /38
O 232133Z JUN 93
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY KIGALI IMMEDIATE
INFO AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
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STATE 190873 232135Z
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE STATE 190873
E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, RW, TZ, UG
SUBJECT: ARUSHA PEACE TALKS: CAN THEY BE SALVAGED?
U.S. OBSERVER TO THE RWANDAN PEACE TALKS JOYCE LEADER
PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING REPORT FROM ARUSHA.
1. THE DECISION OF PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA NOT TO COME TO
ARUSHA JUNE 24 TO SIGN THE PEACE ACCORD IS VIEWED IN
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: CHARLES L DARIS
DATE/CASE ID: 10 JAN 2006 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
DODE-00
L-03
PRS-01
CORE-00
UNCLASSIFIED
ARUSHA AS A SLAP IN THE FACE OF THE FACILITATOR, PRESIDENT
MWINYI. THE TANZANIAN STRATEGY IS TO ASK HABYARIMANA TO
REVERSE THIS DECISION, COME TO ARUSHA, COMPLETE
NEGOTIATIONS ON ANY OUTSTANDING ISSUES, AND SIGN THE
ACCORD JUNE 24. AT THE SAME TIME. TANZANIA IS ENCOURAGING
THE RPF TO ACCEPT THE FACILITATOR'S PROPOSAL FOR FORCE
PROPORTIONS AT THE COMMAND LEVEL OF THE ARMY AND
GENDARMERIE. PRESIDENT MWINYI IS TRYING TO REACH
PRESIDENT MUSEVENI OF UGANDA (WHO IS APPARENTLY UP COUNTRY
AND OUT OF CONTACT) TO ENLIST HIS SUPPORT WITH THE RPF.
2. GOR FOREIGN MINISTER NGULINZIRA TOLD U.S. OBSERVER HE
WILL PUSH AHEAD ON TRYING TO REACH AGREEMENT WITH THE RPF
ON OUTSTANDING ISSUES SO THE TWO REMAINING PROTOCOLS, ONE
ON MILITARY ISSUES AND ONE ON OUTSTANDING POLITICAL
ISSUES, CAN BE SIGNED. ONE GOR DELEGATE HOPES THE TWO
SIDES MIGHT BE ABLE TO CUT A DEAL, WITH THE RPF MAKING A
CONCESSION ON THE FORCE PORPORTION ISSUE AND THE
GOVERNMENT DOING THE SAME ON THE TIMING OF THE FORMATION
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OF THE BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT. RESOLVING THESE TWO ISSUES
WILL FINALLY CONCLUDE THE NEGOTIATIONS.
3. IT IS PROBABLE, HOWEVER. THAT THE RFF NEGOTIATORS WILL
BE UNABLE TO SHOW ANY FLEXIBILITY ON THE FORCE PROPORTION
ISSUE WITHOUT NEW INSTRUCTIONS. THE UGANDAN OBSERVER TOLD
U.S. OBSERVER HE HAS SENT A REPORT TO KAMPALA ADVISING
MUSEVENI TO SUPPORT FULLY THE FACILITATOR'S PROPOSAL. BUT
HE SUSFECTS MUSEVENI HAS NOT RECEIVED THE MESSAGE BECAUSE
OF HIS TRIP TO THE NORTH. HE SPECULATED THAT THE
CONFUSION BETWEEN THE RPF VERSION AND THE TANZANIAN
VERSION OF WHAT WAS AGREED TO BETWEEN TANZANIA'S PRIME
MINISTER AND RPF CHAIRMAN KANYARENGWE STEMS FROM
MISUNDERSTANDINGS INSIDE THE RPF. HE SAID KANYARENGWE MAY
HAVE AGREED IN HIS PRIVATE MEETING WITH THE PRIME MINISTER
TO LIMIT APPLICATION OF THE 50-50 RATIO TO THE HIGH
COMMAND. THE RPF MILITARY MAY HAVE FOUND THIS AGREEMENT
UNACCEPTABLE.
4. MEANWHILE, GUESTS ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IN ARUSHA
FOR THE JUNE 24 SIGNING CEREMONY. THE TANZANIANS ARE
PERSISTING IN THEIR PREPARATIONS.
5.
COMMENT. HOW THE TANZANIANS WILL RESPOND IF
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HABYARIMANA FAILS TO COME TO ARUSHA JUNE 24 IS UNCLEAR.
THERE IS TALK OF SIGNING BEFORE JUNE 28. CHRISTOPHER
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