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1.4(D)
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371E30 011543Z /38
O 011537Z APR 94
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO AMEMBASSY KAMPALA IMMEDIATE
INFO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6124
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 02 KIGALI 01458
KAMPALA FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY MOOSE
AND AMBASSADOR CARSON FROM AMBASSADOR
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, RW
SUBJECT; NEGOTIATIONS SLIDE INTO LONG WEEKEND
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2.
IN VIEW OF YOUR 4/4 MEETING WITH MUSEVENI, I
WANTED TO GET YOU THE LATEST FROM HERE ON THE STATE
OF NEGOTIATIONS TOWARD ESTABLISHMENT OF TRANSITION
INSTITUTIONS. A ROUND OF GOOD FRIDAY CALLS TO
OBSERVERS, THE UN AND KEY PLAYERS SUGGESTS THAT THE
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SIDES ARE INCHING TOWARDS EACH OTHER, BUT AFRAID TO
MAKE THE FINAL OFFER. MANY OBSERVERS BELIEVE
INSTALLATION OF INSTITUTIONS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT THE
ARUSHA SUMMIT ON BURUNDI.
THE CDR ISSUE
3. INTERNAL OPPOSITION PARTIES TOLD ME 3/31 THAT IF
THE PRESIDENT WERE TO MAKE A CLEAR CUT DECLARATION
THAT ADMISSION OF THE CDR TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
WAS THE LAST ISSUE INHIBITING INSTALLATION OF THE
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY• WILLIAM E LANDFAIR
CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL REASON: 1.4(D)
DECLASSIFY AFTER: 31 MAR 2014
DATE/CASEMMIAY21)05 200103014
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UNCLASSIFIED
INSTITUTIONS, THEY WOULD LOBBY FOR CDR. RPF TOLD
AMBASSADOR TAMBWE THE SAME DAY THAT, IF THEY GOT
FORMAL ASSURANCES FROM THE PRESIDENT THAT CDR WAS THE
LAST ISSUE AT STAKE, THEY WOULD TAKE A LOOK AT THEIR
POSITION. AS OF NOW, THEIR POSITION IS THAT THE CDR
MUST WAIT A MONTH OR TWO BEFORE THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
ACTS ON ITS APPLICATION TO JOIN. MEANWHILE, IN SPITE
OF THE ASSASSINATION OF ONE OF ITS YOUTH LEADERS, CDR
CONTINUES TO URGE ITS PARTISANS TO BE PATIENT.
KIGALI HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET WITH DAILY
TRAFFIC AT USUAL LEVELS. THE NIGHT OF 3/31 DID,
HOWEVER, OFFER UP SEVERAL GRENADE EXPLOSIONS AND SOME
GUNSHOTS. THERE IS ONE REPORTED FATALITY AMONGST
YOUTH WHO WERE REPORTEDLY TAUNTING GUARDS AT THE
PRESIDENCY LATE AT NIGHT AND DREW THEIR FIRE.
IS CDR THE LAST ISSUE?
4. OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS, I HAVE CONCENTRATED MY
DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS ON PRESIDENTIAL COUNSELORS. I
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REMINDED THEM THAT OUR SUPPORT FOR EQUITY TO ALL
PARTIES, INCLUDING THE CDR, DERIVES FROM OUR SUPPORT
FOR THE ARUSHA PEACE ACCORD. ALL OTHER CURRENT
DISPUTES ARE INTERPARTY QUESTIONS THAT SHOULD BE
RESOLVED AFTER THE INSTITUTIONS HAVE BEEN PUT IN
PLACE. PRESIDENTIAL CABINET DIRECTOR RUHIGIRA SAID
THAT THE CDR WAS THE LAST OUTSTANDING SUBSTANTIVE
ISSUE FOR THE PRESIDENT. HE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE
PRESIDENT DID NOT CONTROL PARTY SENTIMENT.
PRESIDENTIAL COUNSELOR RUNYINYA ELABORATED THE LINKS
BETWEEN ELECTION OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT
AND A POSSIBLE REVOLT BY PL MUGENZI OVER INSTALLATION
OF MINISTERS. ACCORDING TO RUNYINYA, IF MUGENZI'S
CANDIDATE, FORMER MINISTER OF JUSTICE MBONAMPEKA,
WINS EITHER THE PRESIDENCY OR THE VICE PRESIDENCY OF
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, MUGENZI WILL BE SATISFIED. IF
MBONAMPEKA LOSES BOTH OFFICES, MUGENZI WILL NOT FEEL
ADEQUATELY REWARDED FB HAVING GIVEN UP THE JUSTICE
MINISTRY TO HIS PARTY OPPONENT, MINISTER NDASINGWA.
MUGENZI WOULD THEN PROBABLY CALL FOR A SUSPENSION OF
THE INSTALLATION CEREMONY FOR GOVERNMENT. MINISTER
OF TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS (THE PRESIDENT'S
RECENT ENVOY TO WESTERN CAPITALS AND THE UNITED
NATIONS) SAID ALL WOULD BE WELL WITH THE NATIONAL
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ASSEMBLY ONCE THE CDR WERE ADMITTED, BUT OUTSTANDING
QUESTIONS MIGHT STILL TROUBLE THE FORMATION OF
GOVERNMENT. I MADE IT CLEAR TO ALL THE ABOVE THAT
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CONSIDERED THE
INSTALLATION CEREMONY TO BE ONE AND INDIVISIBLE. THE
PRESIDENT AND THE POLITICAL PARTIES SHOULD GO TO THAT
CEREMONY PREPARED TO COMPLETE IT WITHOUT FURTHER
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DELAY OR RAISING ANY NEW ISSUES.
5. WE BELIEVE THAT THE CDR ISSUE IS THE ONE
REMAINING REAL IMPEDIMENT TO PUTTING THE INSTITUTIONS
IN PLACE. IF THE PRESIDENT GETS SATISFACTION ON
THAT, HE WILL CARRY THROUGH WITH THE INSTALLATION,
BUT THE PRESIDENCY IS WAITING FOR RPF TO BUDGE. EACH
PARTY IS AFRAID TO MAKE FINAL COMMITMENT FOR FEAR OF
LOSING ADVANTAGE. BOTH TANZANIAN AMBASSADOR AND
GERMAN AMBASSADOR (CURRENT PRESIDENT OF THE
EUROPEANS) BELIEVE THAT THE INSTITUTIONS WILL NOT BE
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INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 C-01
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371F43 011554Z /48 38
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FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
TO AMEMBASSY KAMPALA IMMEDIATE
INFO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6125
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 02 KIGALI 01458
KAMPALA FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY MOOSE
AND AMBASSADOR CARSON FROM AMBASS
DOR
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, RW
SUBJECT; NEGOTIATIONS SLIDE INTO LONG WEEKEND
ESTABLISHED UNTIL PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA GETS BACK
FROM THE ARUSHA SUMMIT ON BURUNDI. OUR MAJOR FEAR IS
THAT THE RELATIVE CALM WHICH HAS CHARACTERIZED KIGALI
THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL NOT HOLD UNTIL THEN. I
HAVE URGED ALL MY INTERLOCUTORS TO USE EVERY
INFLUENCE AT THEIR DISPOSAL TO ENCOURAGE CALM AS WE
APPROACH THIS LAST TURN ON THE COURSE.
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1.4(D)
7. REGARDS. RAWSON
UNCLASSIFIED
