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58E7CE 240707Z /38
P 240702Z AUG 92
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1567
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 02 KIGALI 03503
E.0 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: CHALLENGE TO THE CONSTITUTION BREWING
REFS: A) KIGALI 3421 B) KIGALI 3298
C) KIGALI 3044 D) KIGALI 3457
1.
C - ENTIRE TEXT.
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SUMMARY.
A
SHOWDOWN MAY BE BREWING FOR THE NEXT
2.
ROUND OF POLITICAL TALKS IN ARUSHA THAT WOULD PIT THE
INTERNAL OPPOSITION AND THE RPF TOGETHER AGAINST THE
PRESIDENT AND HIS SUPPORTERS OVER THE ISSUE OF
PRESIDENTIAL PREROGATIVES AND CONSTITUTIONAL POWER.
TO AVERT THE POTENTIAL SHOWDOWN, WHICH RISKS
PRECIPITATING RENEWED AND ESCALATED FIGHTING, THE TWO
SIDES WILL HAVE TO AGREE ON WAYS SHORT OF SUSPENDING
THE RWANDAN CONSTITUTION TO PROVIDE SECURITY
GUARANTEES TO THE COMBINED OPPOSITION THAT WILL
EFFECTIVELY REDUCE THE PRESIDENT'S CONTINUING
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: ARCHIE M BOLSTER
DATE/CASE ID: 28 JUN 2006 200600730
UNCLASSIFIED
RA-09
NSCE-00
SNP-01
UNCLASSIFIED
MONOPOLY ON POWER. END SUMMARY.
3. IN SEPARATE MEETINGS AUGUST 20 OPPOSITION LEADERS
FAUSTIN TWAGIRAMUNGU (MDR) AND JUSTIN MUGENZI (PL)
TOLD CHARGE THAT RWANDA'S CONSTITUTION MUST BE
CHANGED DURING THE TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY. THEY
SAID THIS HAD TO BE DONE IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE
PRESIDENT'S POWER AND MEET THE RPF DEMANDS FOR
ENTERING THE TRANSITION GOVERNMENT. THEY AGREED THAT
THE PROTOCOL JUST SIGNED IN THE FIRST ROUND OF ARUSHA
II TALKS HAD BROUGHT THE RPF INTO THE FOLD OF THE
UNARMED OPPOSITION BY COMMITTING THE RPF TO SOME
IMPORTANT PRINCIPLES. HOWEVER, THEY SAID, IT FAILED
TO GET AT THE REAL ISSUES.
4. TWAGIRAMUNGU ARGUED THAT CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES
WERE THE PRICE THE COUNTRY MUST PAY FOR PEACE.
OTHERWISE, HE PREDICTED THE RPF COULD THREATEN TO
RENEW FIGHTING. HE CONTENDED THAT CHANGING CERTAIN
ARTICLES OF THE CONSTITUTION TO REDUCE THE POWER OF
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THE PRESIDENT WAS A REASONABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE
RPF'S UNACCEPTABLE PROPOSAL FOR A NATIONAL COUNCIL
HAVING BOTH EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE POWERS.
(NOTE: THIS IS A NEW POSITION FOR TWAGIRAMUNGU.
REFS B AND C REPORTED THAT HE FAVORED, OR WAS AT
LEAST SYMPATHETIC TO, SUCH A COUNCIL. END NOTE.)
TWAGIRAMUNGU SAID THE PRESIDENT COULD REMAIN IN
OFFICE AS A FIGUREHEAD BUT HE WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
EXERCISE ANY POWERS.
5. ASKED WHY THE RPF SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DICTATE
STIFFER TERMS THAN THE INTERNAL OPPOSITION HAD
ACCEPTED IN NEGOTIATING THE TRANSITION GOVERNMENT,
TWAGIRAMUNGU DESCRIBED CERTAIN RPF MEMBERS AS
POLITICAL GIANTS IN RWANDA WHOSE RETURN WOULD
DRAMATICALLY ALTER THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. RPF
PRESIDENT KANYARWENGWE HEADED HIS LIST, FOLLOWED BY
EX-INTELLIGENCE CHIEF LISENDE AND A COMMANDO NAMED
BIZERUKA. HE RECALLED THAT KANYARWENGWE HAD ACTUALLY
BEEN THE ONE PLANNING A COUP IN 1973 WHEN
HABYARIMANA, WHO HAD BEEN TOLD OF THE PLOT BY
LISENDE, DECIDED TO JOIN: (NOTE: THESE MEN ARE NOW
ARCH ENEMIES, EVER SINCE KANYARWENGWE WAS FORCED TO
FLEE WHEN IMPLICATED IN A COUP PLOT AGAINST
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HABYARIMANA IN 1980).
6. MUGENZI DESCRIBED TO CHARGE A MORE ELABORATE
SCENARIO. THE PRESIDENT, HE SAID, WOULD HAVE TO
AGREE TO: SUSPEND THE CONSTITUTION, DISSOLVE THE
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, INSTALL A NEW GOVERNMENT IN ACCORD
WITH A NEW PROVISIONAL PROTOCOL, INTEGRATE THE
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ARMIES, BEGIN THE RETURN OF REFUGEES AND HOLD A
NATIONAL CONFERENCE TO DRAW UP A NEW CONSTITUTION ALL BEFORE ELECTIONS COULD BE HELD. MUGENZI INSISTED
THAT THE RPF WOULD NEVER ACCEPT THE CURRENT
CONSTITUTION.
7. MUGENZI ALSO ARGUED THAT THE PRESIDENT HAD TO BE
STRIPPED OF HIS POWERS IN ORDER TO ALLOW INTERNAL
SECURITY TO BE RESTORED. HE EXPRESSED GRAVE CONCERN
OVER CONTINUING VIOLENCE IN THE COUNTRY AND ACCUSED
THE PRESIDENT OF CREATING CHAOS WHILE THE TRANSITION
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ACTION AF-01
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LOG-00
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AMAD-01
INRE-00
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CIAE-00
INR-01
PM-01
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INFO
240727Z
DODE-00 EUR-01
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NSAE-00
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USIE-00
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240727Z
/38
58E8A0
P 240702Z AUG 92
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
UNCLASSIFIED
HA-09
NSCE-00
SNP-01
UNCLASSIFIED
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1568
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 02 KIGALI 03503
E.0 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: CHALLENGE TO THE CONSTITUTION BREWING
GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO CREATE ORDER. HE SAID
EXPERIENCE HAD SHOWN THAT THE COMPROMISES THE
OPPOSITION MADE IN APRIL TO FORM THE TRANSITION
GOVERNMENT HAD LEFT HABYARIMANA THE WINNER; HE STILL
HOLDS ALL THE POWER. MUGENZI CONTENDS THAT THE
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PRESIDENT HAS BEEN SHORT-SIGHTED BY NOT TRYING TO WIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE INTERNAL OPPOSITION DURING THE
PAST FOUR MONTHS. NOW, HE SAID, IT IS TOO LATE; NOW
WE SEE HE IS NOT TO BE TRUSTED.
B. MUGENZI CLAIMED THAT THE SPEECH HABYARIMANA
DELIVERED TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY EARLIER THIS WEEK
(REF D) SHOWED THAT HE NEVER SUPPORTED THE MULTIPARTY
TRANSITION GOVERNMENT. MUGENZI NOTED (A POINT WE HAD
MISSED) THAT IN THE SPEECH THE PRESIDENT HAD CALLED
ON THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO CONTROL THE GOVERNMENT,
REFERRING TO AN ARTICLE OF THE CONSTITUTION (ARTICLE
81) THAT HAS NEVER BEFORE BEEN INVOKED.
9. MUGENZI ASKED CHARGE HOW FAR THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY WOULD BE WILLING TO GO IF THE INTERNAL
OPPOSITION WERE TO SIDE WITH THE RPF AND INSIST THAT
HABYARIMANA RETAIN ONLY CEREMONIAL POWERS OR STEP
DOWN. CHARGE ASKED WHETHER THIS APPROACH INTENDED TO
THREATEN RENEWED RPF FIGHTING UNLESS THE PRESIDENT
CAPITULATED AND WHERE MUGENZI THOUGHT THE ARMY AND
GENDARMERIE WOULD STAND IN SUCH A CONFRONTATION.
MUGENZI DENIED SUCH A STRATEGY WOULD INVOLVE THE
UNCLASSIFIED
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THREAT OF FORCE AND SPECUALTED THAT HABYARIMANA WOULD
BE UNABLE TO HOLD THE ARMY AND THE GENDARMERIE WITH
HIM IN SUCH A SITUATION.
10. CHARGE SAID SHE WAS NOT CONVINCED THAT CHANGING
THE CONSTITUTION WOULD ACTUALLY END THE DESTABILIZING
ACTIVITIES AND INTERNAL VIOLENCE MUGENZI ACCUSED THE
PRESIDENT OF FOMENTING. SHE ASKED WHETHER THERE
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MIGHT BE LESS DRASTIC ACTIONS, SHORT OF RUPTURING THE
DEMOCRATIC PROCESS, THAT MIGHT ADDRESS MUGENZI'S
URGENT CONCERN FOR SECURITY. SHE MENTIONED THE
POSSIBILITY OF CHANGES IN MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIOS,
DEFENSE FOR EXAMPLE, OR CHANGES IN THE SECURITY
FORCES. MUGENZI INSISTED THAT AS LONG AS THE
PRESIDENT RETAINS THE POWER MONOPOLY GRANTED HIM BY
THE RWANDAN CONSTITUTION, HE WILL BE ABLE TO PROTECT
THOSE WILLING TO CREATE CHAOS ON HIS BEHALF. THE
PRESIDENT AND THOSE AROUND HIM, MUGENZI SAID, ARE NOT
INTERESTED IN EITHER PEACE OR DEMOCRACY.
11. COMMENT. TWAGIRAMUNGU AND MUGENZI APPARENTLY
INTEND TO USE THE OCCASION OF THE POWERSHARING TALKS
TO MAKE ANOTHER BID TO REDUCE PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA'S
POWER BY ALIGNING THEMSELVES AND THEIR CONSTIUENCIES
WITH THE RPF TO DEMAND CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES IN THE
NEXT ROUND AT ARUSHA. THEY WERE PROBABLY TESTING THE
DIPLOMATIC WATERS TO SEE HOW FAR THEY COULD GO
WITHOUT LOSING U.S. AND WESTERN SUPPORT. CHARGE
BELIEVES BOTH REMAIN OPEN TO CONSIDERING OPTIONS.
MUGENZI EVEN SUGGESTED AT ONE POINT THAT A NEW
COMMISSION DE SYNTHESE THAT WOULD "RESHUFFLE" THE
CONSTITUTION MIGHT BE AN ALTERNATIVE TO HIS INITIAL
SCENARIO.
12. BOTH TWAGIRAMUNGU AND MUGENZI SEEM TO VIEW
HABYARIMANA AS A GODFATHER FIGURE WHO CAN CREATE OR
CALM CHAOS AT WILL. IF HE CAN BE CONTOLLED, THEY
BELIEVE, INTERNAL INSECURITY AND DESTABILIZATION WILL
END. CHARGE REMAINS SKEPTICAL THAT THE CATHARTIC
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APPROACH DESCRIBED BY MUGENZI WILL ACHIEVE THE
DESIRED RESULTS. ALTHOUGH A NETWORK OF TROUBLEMAKERS
MAY EXIST WHO ACTUALLY DEPEND ON HABYARIMANA FOR
PROTECTION AND MAY MEET THEIR DEMISE SHOULD HE BE
STRIPPED OF HIS POWERS, IT IS UNLIKELY THEY WOULD
FADE FROM THE SCENE WITHOUT A FIGHT. ALSO, THE
POSITION THE ARMY AND THE GENDARMERIE WOULD TAKE IN
SUCH A SITUATION REMAINS AN UNPREDICTABLE AND UNKNOWN
FACTOR. END COMMENT.
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