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ORIGIN AF-01
STATE 091736 270233Z
OASY-00 DODE-00
INFO LOG-00 ACDA-17 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 C-01
TEDE-00
INR-00 10-19
H-01
EAP-01 EUR-01 HA-09
ADS-00 NSAE - 00 NSCE-00 01C-02 OMB-01 PA-01
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DRAFTED BY: AF/C: CSFUILER - (AF)
APPROVED BY: AF/C: RMPRINGLE
AC485C 270235Z /38
O 270232Z MAR 93
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY KIGALI IMMEDIATE
INFO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY PARIS IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BONN PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: MOPS MCAP PREL RW OAU UN
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON RWANDA NEGOTIATIONS IN ARUSHA: 3/26/93
1.
C - ENTIRE TEXT.
SUMMARY. ACCORDING TO LTC MARLEY, THE TWO PARTIES TO
2.
THE ARUSHA TALKS HAVE BEGUN NEGOTIATING THE INTEGRATION
PERCENTAGES FOR THE ARMY, BUT REMAIN FAR FROM AGREEMENT.
BOTH THE GOR AND RPF HAVE INDICATED TO THE UN
REPRESENTATIVE THAT THEY WOULD LIKE THE PARTICIPATION OF
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AUTHORITY: HARMON E KIRBY
DATE/CASE 11): 02 APR 2008 200103014
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
THE US, CANADA AND AUSTRALIA IN THE KIGALI - BASED
INTERNATIONAL MILITARY FORCE MENTIONED IN THE 7 MARCH DAR
ES SALAAM COMMUNIQUE. END SUMMARY.
3. AF/RA MILITARY ADVISER MARLEY PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING
UPDATE FROM ARUSHA MARCH 26 ON THE ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS
BETWEEN THE GOR AND THE RPF.
4. THE FACILITATOR AND BOTH RWANDAN PARTIES HAVE GRASPED
THE NETTLE AND INITIATED NEGOTIATIONS ON THE INTEGRATION
RATIOS OF THE NEW RWANDAN ARMY. RATHER THAN FACILITATING
DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS, TANZANIAN MINISTER KANANA AND
AMBASSADOR MPUNGWE ARE SHUTTLING BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES
IN AN EFFORT TO FILTER OUT THE ACCUSATIONS AND INSULTS
GENERATED BY THIS EMOTIONAL ISSUE.
5. THE INITIAL GOR PROPOSAL WAS FOR A RATIO OF 80 PERCENT
GOR AND 20 PERCENT RPF. THE GOR JUSTIFIED THE PROPOSAL BY
SAYING THAT THE FAR SHOULD HAVE THE LARGER PROPORTION
BECAUSE IT REPORTED TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT AND
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BENEFITTED FROM THE SUPPORT OF THE POPULACE. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, THE RPF FOUND THE GOR'S PROPOSAL
UNACCEPTABLE AND ITS ARGUMENTS SPECIOUS. BIZIMUNGU,
LEADER OF THE RPF DELEGATION, REPORTEDLY CALLED THE OFFER
BOTH QUOTE PROVOCATIVE UNQUOTE AND A QUOTE INSULT
UNQUOTE. HE ASKED IF THE GOVERNMENT REALLY BELIEVED THE
FAR WAS FOUR TIMES MORE POWERFUL OR BETTER THAN THE RPF.
APPARENTLY IN VINTAGE FORM, BIZIMUNGU CLAIMED THAT THE FAR
WAS A DEFEATED ARMY AND THAT THE RPF SHOULD BE LISTED IN
THE GUINNESS BOOK OF RECORDS FOR BEING THE FIRST ARMY IN
HISTORY TO VOLUNTARILY WITHDRAW FROM TERRITORY IT HAD
CAPTURED. HE THEN REPORTEDLY ASKED THE FACILITATOR TO
TELL THE GOR THAT THE RPF AGREED TO A RATIO OF 80/20; 80
PERCENT FOR THE RPF AND 20 PERCENT FOR THE FAR. AFTER A
PAUSE FOR CONSULTATIONS (CALLED BY THE FACILITATOR TO CALM
BIZIMUNGU'S TEMPER), THE RPF PROPOSED A RATIO OF 55/45,
IMPLYING (BUT NOT STATING OUTRIGHT) THAT THE RPF WOULD
ACCEPT 45 PERCENT.
.
5. IN A MEETING CALLED BY THE FACILITATOR TO APPRISE THE
OBSERVERS OF THE SITUATION AND TO SOLICIT RECOMMENDATIONS,
USREP SUGGESTED THAT THE FACILITATOR DISCUSS WITH BOTH
PARTIES THE POSSIBILITY OF VARIABLE INTEGRATION RATIOS
(PERHAPS A 50/50 RATIO AT THE HIGH COMMAND, A DIFFERENT
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
RATIO FOR THE OFFICER CORPS, AND STILL A DIFFERENT
PERCENTAGE IN THE ENLISTED RANKS) AND A BALANCED DIVISION
OF KEY COMMAND POSITIONS (ARMY VS. GENDARMERIE, BRIGADE
AND BATTALION COMMANDS). THIS SUGGESTION WAS SECONDED BY
THE FRENCH AND BELGIAN REPRESENTATIVES; THE FRENCH REP
STATED THAT HIS DISCUSSIONS WITH THE GOR INDICATED THAT
THEY WOULD FAVOR SUCH A FORMULATION. (COMMENT: USREP
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ALSO PERCEIVES GREATER FLEXIBILITY ON THIS ISSUE ON THE
PART OF THE GOR THAN ON THE PART OF THE RPF. END
COMMENT.) ALL THE OBSERVERS AGREED THAT THE ISSUE WAS A
POLITICAL MATTER RATHER THAN A MILITARY TECHNICAL PROBLEM,
AND THAT THE OBSERVERS SHOULD REFRAIN FROM RECOMMENDING A
SPECIFIC PERCENTAGE TO THE PARTIES. EITHER COLLECTIVELY
ALSO UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT
OR AS INDIVIDUALS, THERE WAS
THE GOR'S RECOMMENDATION IS TOO LOW, BUT THAT 50/50 IS TOO
HIGH.
6. FOLLOWING THE MEETING WITH THE OBSERVERS, THE
FACILITATOR RESUMED HIS SHUFFLE DIPLOMACY (SHUFFLING THE
SHORT DISTANCE BETWEEN PARTIES IN THE HOTEL RATHER THAN
SHUTTLING EXTENDED DISTANCES). ALL PRESENT BELIEVE
NEGOTIATIONS ON THIS ISSUE WILL LAST 1-2 MORE DAYS.
7. THE UN GOODWILL MISSION REPRESENTATIVE INDICATED THAT
BOTH THE GOR AND THE RPF HAVE INDICATED THAT THEY WOULD
LIKE PARTICIPATION BY THE UNITED STATES, CANADA AND
AUSTRALIA IN THE KIGALI-BASED INTERNATIONAL MILITARY
HUMANITARIAN FORCE CALLED FOR IN THE 7 MARCH DAR ES SALAAM
COMMUNIQUE TO REPLACE FRENCH TROOPS PRESENT IN RWANDA.
(DEPARTMENT COMMENT: IN A MEETING WITH A/S COHEN AND A/S
DESIGNATE MOOSE MARCH 26, FRENCH DIRECTOR FOR AFRICA DE LA
SABLIERE MADE CLEAR THAT THIS IS THE THIRD OF THREE
SEPARATE FORCES UNDER CONSIDERATION. DISCUSSION WILL BE
REPORTED SEPTEL. END COMMENT.)
8. THE TANZANIANS MET WITH THE RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR 25
MARCH, WHO INDICATED THE RUSSIAN DIRECTOR OF AFRICAN
AFFAIRS WAS VISITING THE REGION AT THE REQUEST OF THE GOR,
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BUT THAT THE RUSSIANS HAD NO DESIRE TO JOIN THE ARUSHA
PROCESS AS AN OBSERVER NOR IN ANY WAY UNDERMINE THE
OAU/ARUSHA PEACE EFFORT. THE RUSSIAN DIRECTOR FOR AFRICAN
AFFAIRS WILL REPORTEDLY SPEND 27 MARCH IN ARUSHA. THE
TANZANIANS PLAN TO USE THE OPPORTUNITY TO DISCUSS THE
PLIGHT OF UNIVERSITY AND MILITARY STUDENTS STRANDED IN THE
EX-SOVIET UNION.
9. DISCUSSIONS HAVE BEGUN, IN ARUSHA AT LEAST, AMONG THE
OAU REPRESENTATIVE, THE FACILITATOR, AFRICAN AMBASSADORS,
THE GOR, AND THE RPF ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REMOVING MG
OPALEYE AS COMMANDER OF NMOG. THE OAU REP AND FACILITATOR
REPORTEDLY PLAN TO TELEPHONE OAU SYG SALIM SALIM THE
EVENING OF 26 MARCH TO RECOMMEND THAT OPALEYE BE
REPLACED. SOME (NOTABLY THE GOR) WOULD LIKE HIS IMMEDIATE
DISMISSAL, BUT THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TO DIRECT THAT HE
BE ROTATED HOME (NIGERIA) UPON THE SIGNING OF THE
CEASEFIRE.
10. THERE HAS NOT YET BEEN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
COMPOSITION OF THE NEUTRAL SECURITY FORCE IN RWANDA DURING
THE MILITARY INTEGRATION AND DEMOBILIZATION PROCESS.
COMMENT. IT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE 24 - 36 HOURS OF
11.
PRESSURE BY THE OBSERVERS TO TRULY CONVINCE THE RPF THAT
WE SEE NO SPECIAL MERIT IN THEIR DESIRE FOR A 50-50
DIVISION FOR THE INTEGRATION. FOLLOWING THAT, THE
REMAINING ISSUES WILL PROBABLY BE RESOLVED QUICKLY AS BOTH
PARTIES ARE UNFORTUNATELY WANTING TO LEAVE A VAST ARRAY OF
DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED BY THE TRANSITION GOVERNMENT,
INCLUDING (UNWISELY) MOST OF THE DETAILS FOR A
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DEMOBILIZATION PROGRAM. END COMMENT.
CHRISTOPHER
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