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------------------ 1675A7 041705Z /38
P 041530Z JAN 94
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5421
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 01 OF 04 KIGALI 00032
YAOUNDE FOR DATT
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS: IMPASSE PERSISTS
CONFIDENTIAL
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KIGALI 00032 01 OF 04 041704Z
PAGE 02
REF: KIGALI 04655
1.
CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
SUMMARY: WEEKEND MANEUVERING SAW NO PROGRESS ON
2.
THE IMPASSE OVER INSTALLATION OF TRANSITION
INSTITUTIONS. POSTURING BY ALL POLITICAL ACTORS,
INCLUDING PRESS RELEASES, PRESS CONFERENCES,
STATEMENS AND EVEN DEMONSTRATIONS, WERE UNHELPFUL IN
POINTINGT THE WAY TO COMMON GROUND FOR COMPROMISE.
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
REVIEW AlUTHORITY: JOHN L MILLS
DATE/CASE ID: 01 NOV 2007 20010301 4
S S1
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
WESTERN DIPLOMATS TOOK THE OFFENSI VE, MEETING WITH ,
PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA, THE PRIME MINISTER-DESINTE
AND THE RPF PRESIDENT TO IMPRESS UPON THEM THE
URGENCY OF RESOLVING THE IMPASSE.
FOLLOWING MEETING WITH DIPLOMATS, PRESIDENT SIGNALED
UNAMIR POSSIBLE WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT MINISTERS
PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE. THE PRICE IS NOT YET OF
CLEAR. THE LONGER THE STALEMATE PERSISTS, THE
GREATER THE RISK OF A RETURN TO VIOLENCE BY ONE SIDE
OR THE OTHER. WESTERN DIPLOMATS WILL MEET AGAIN
TODAY WITH UNAMIR TO REVIEW THE STATE OF PLAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING JANUARY 5.
END SUMMARY.
NO PROGRESS
3. DEADLOCK CONTINUES ON RWANDAN EFFORTS TO PUT IN
PLACE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS CALLED FOR IN THE
ARUSHA PEACE ACCORD. THE PRESIDENT CONTINUES TO
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INSIST THAT THE DIVIDED PARTIES REACH ACCOMMODATION
AND PRESENT COMMON LISTS OF PROPOSED MINISTERS
ASSEMBLY DEPUTIES. THE PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATED
FAUSTIN TRAGIRAMUNGU, CONTENDS THAT THERE IS NO MORE
HE CAN DO TO BRING ABOUT PARTY RECONCILIATION, THAT
ALL OF HIS NEGOTIATIONS ARE CONCLUDED. THE RPF
INSISTS THAT THE PROPOSED DEPUTIES OF THE LIBERAL
PARTY ELECTED LAST SEPTEMBER BE OFFICAL LIST FOR THAT
PARTY.
POLITICAL POSTURING
4. THE VARIOUS POLITICAL ACTORS TOOK THEIR CAUSES TO
THE PUBLIC IN A VARIETY OF WAYS OVER THE NEW YEAR'S
WEEKEND. PRIME MINISTER AGATHE UWILINGIYIMANA
ANOUNCED A PRESS CONFERENCE 12/31 THAT THE SWEARING
IN CEREMONY WOULD BE HELD ON MEW YEAR'S DAY AT 10:00
A.M. THE MORNING NEWS ON NEW YEAR'S DAY CARRIED A
PRESS RELEASE FROM THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE
ANNOUNCING THAT THE CEREMONY HAD BEEN CANCELED
BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT REFUSED TO TAKE THE OATH OF
OFFICE ON THAT DAY.
5. THE PRESIDENT IN HIS TRADITIONAL NEW YEAR'S
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
NS, ESPEC IAL LY THE
SPEECH URGED RWANDA'S POLITTICIA
CON SULTATIONS
PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE, O CONTINUE
TOWARD FORMATION OF STABLE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS DAY
THAT COULD ENSURE A DURABLE PEACE. ON NEW YEAR'S THAT
HIS CABINET DIRECTOR ISSUED A COMMUNIQUE STATING
THE PRESIDENT HAD NOT REFUSED TO TAKE THE OATH OF
OFFICE AND WAS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR BLOCKING THE
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INSTALLATION OF THE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS AS
ALLEGED BY THE PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE.
PRESIDENT OF THE RPF, COLONEL KANYARENGWE, HELD A
6.
PRESS CONFERENCE AFTERNOON OF 12/31 AT WHICH HE
EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF PUTTING THE TRANSITION
INSTITUTIONS IN PLACE A RAPIDLY AS POSSIBLE IN ORDER
TO MEET DEADLINES IMPOSED BY THE SECURITY COUNCIL AND
BY THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
ALSO ON 12/31 THE MDR WING OPPOSED TO TWAGIRAMUNGU
7.
HELD A DEMONSTRATION MARCH THROUGH KIGALI TO PROTEST
THE PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE'S INFLEXIBILITY. THE
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1675D9 041706Z /38
P 041530Z JAN 94
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5422
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
CONFIDENTIALSECTION 02 OF 04 KIGALI 00032
YAOUNDE FOR DATT
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV, RN
SUBJECT: TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS: IMPASSE PERSISTS
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KIGALI 00032 02 OF 04 041706Z
DEMONSTRATION ATTRACTED BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE
HUNDRED PEOPLE AND WAS AT TIMES VIOLENT WITH
DEMONSTRATORS THROWING ROCKS AT PASSING CARS.
8. IN AN INTERVIEW WITH RADIO FRANCE INTERNATIONAL
(RFI), PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE TWAGIRAMUNGU BLAMED
THE PRESIDENT FOR BLOCKING INSTALLATION OF THE
TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS. HE THREATENED TO PROCEED
WITH FORMING THE GOVERNMENT WITHOUT THE PRESIDENT'S
BLESSING IF HE CONTINUED TO OBSTRUCT. IN A STATEMENT
1/2,
READ BY TWAGIRAMUNGU ON RADIO RWANDA EVENING OF
HE ANNOUNCED THAT HIS NEGOTIATIONS WERE AT AN END AND
COULD ONLY BEGIN AGAIN IF THE PRESIDENT INSISTED. HE
SAID INTERMINABLE NEGOTIATIONS BECAUSE ONE SIDE OR
THE OTHER DIDN'T LIKE FACTION X OR Y WOULD LEAD
NOWHERE.
9. THE MRND HELD A PRESS CONFERENCE EVENING OF 1/2
IN WHICH IT BLAMED PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE FOR
BLOCKING THE FORMATION OF THE TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
AND FOR INTERFERING IN THE AFFAIRS OF POLITICAL
PARTIES FOR PARTISAN REASONS. THEY ALSO ACCUSED HIM
OF CONNIVANCE WITH THE RPF AND SUGGESTED THAT IF HE
WAS INCAPABLE OF FORMING A GOVERNMENT, THEN ANOTHER
PRIME MINISTER SHOULD BE FOUND.
10. NOT TO BE OUTDONE, THE HARDLINE CDR PARTY, WHICH
HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY SILENT UP TO NOW, ANNOUNCED THAT
IT WOULD SIGN THE CODE OF ETHICS REQUIRED OF
POLITICAL PARTIES PARTICIPATING IN THE TRANSITION
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INSTITUTIONS AND JOIN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. THE CDR
HELD A PRESS CONFERENCE TO THIS EFFECT ON 1/2, WHICH
ATTRACTED KEY MEMBERS OF THE MDR FACTION OPPOSED TO
TWAGIRAMUNGU.
11. THE SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SECURITY
GENERAL (SRSG) BOOH BOOH ISSUED A STRONG STATEMENT AT
A PRESS CONFERENCE 1/3. HE SAID THE DELAY IN PUTTING
TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS IN PLACE WAS INCOMPREHENSIBLE
AND UNACCEPTABLE. IT CAST DOUBT, HE SAID, ON THE
CREDIBILITY OF RWANDAN AUTHORITIES IN THE EYES OF THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND THE RWANDAN PEOPLE.
DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE
12. THE NONCE APOSTOLIQUE SUMMONED THE HEADS OF
EMBASSIES OF FRANCE, BELGIUM, GERMANY AND THE U.S. TO
A MEETING WITH THE SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
SECURITY GENERAL (SRSG) BOOH BOOH MORNING OF NEW
YEAR'S DAY. BOOH BOOH APPEALED TO THE DIPLOMATS FOR
THEIR HELP IN UNBLOCKING THE SITUATION WHICH HE
THE
BELIEVED WAS AT AN IMPASSE. BOOH BOOH SAID MEETING,
12/30
PRESIDENT WAS VERY AGITATED DURING A
CLAIMING THAT HIS ENEMIES WERE DOING EVERYTHING
POSSIBLE TO CHASE HIM FROM POWER AND SAYING THAT HE
WOULD REFUSE TO GIVE ARMS TO HIS ENEMIES SO THAT THEY
COULD ASSASSINATE HIM. HE THREATENED "CONSEQUENCES"
IF THE INSTALLATION CEREMONY WAS ORGANIZED WITHOUT
HIM AND ASKED THAT UNAMIR HELP BLOCK ACCESS TO ANY
CEREMONY AT THE CND HELD WITHOUT HIS CONSENT. BOOH
BOOH SAID THAT UNAMIR WAS TRYING TO SET UP A MEETING
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BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT AND KAGAME. HOWEVER, THE RPF
TERMS, I.E., THAT THE ACTUAL AND FUTURE PRIME
MINISTERS BE PRESENT, ARE UNACCEPTABLE TO THE
PRESIDENT. THIS MEETING IS STILL PENDING. BOOH 99#
SAID THAT PL PRESIDENT MUGENZI WAS OFFERING TO SHARE
MINISTERIAL AND ASSEMBLY POSITIONS WITH THE OTHER
WING OF HIS PARTY UNDER THE AUSPICES OF UNAMIR
MEDIATION. BOOH BOOR SAID FORMER PRIME MINISTER
DISMAS NSENGIYAREMYE, IN A MEETING NEW YEAR'S EVE,
ATTACKED PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE TWAGIRAMUNGU FOR
REJECTING SUGGESTIONS FOR MINISTERIAL POSTS FROM THE
DISMAS WING OF THE PARTY. DISMAS INSISTED FORMER
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16760C 041708Z /38
P 041530Z JAN 94
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5423
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
CONFI DENTIALSECTION 03 OF 04 KIGALI 00032
YAOUNDE FOR DATT
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV, RW
SUBJECT: TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS: IMPASSE PERSISTS
CONFIDENTIAL
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PAGE 02
KIGALI 00032 03 OF 04 041708Z
FOREIGN MINISTER NGULINZIRA MUST BE IN THE
MINISTERIAL LINEUP.
13. THE DIPLOMATS DECIDED TO MAKE A JOINT DEMARCHE ON
THE PRIME MINISTER, THE PRESIDENT AND RPF PRESIDENT
KANYARENGWE TO IMPRESS UPON THEM THE URGENCY OF THE
SITUATION. THE DEMARCHE, HIGHLIGHTING THE
APPROACHING DEADLINES 1/5 IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL,
1/15 FOR THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS,
URGED THAT POLITICAL ACTORS ENGAGE IN CONFIDENCE
BUILDING RATHER THAN MUD SLINGING AND THAT THE
INSTITUTIONS TRULY BROAD-BASED TO FOSTER NATIONAL
RECONCILIATION.
14. PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE TWAGIRAMUNGU MET WITH
THE DIPLOMATS AFTERNOON OF 1/1. HIS RESPONSE TO THE
DEMARCHE BLAMED THE ENTIRE PROBLEM ON THE PRESIDENT.
HE SAID THE PRESIDENT WANTS GUARANTEES IN THE
GOVERNMENT AND IN THE ASSEMBLY SO THAT HE CAN
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE POWER AS HE HAD DONE DURING THE
SINGLE PARTY ERA. HE ACCUSED THE PRESIDENT OF
MANIPULATING THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF HIS PARTY, THE
MDR, AND ALSO THE PL IN ORDER TO ASSURE HIMSELF OF
SUPPORT FROM CERTAIN OF THEIR MEMBERS. TWAGIRAMUNGU
SAID HE CANNOT ACCEPT OUTSIDE FORCES DESTROYING THE
MDR PARTY AND THAT HE WILL NEVER BASE HIS POLITICS ON
ETHNIC OR REGIONAL CONSIDERATIONS. HE DISMISSED THE
ACCUSATION THAT HE IS PRO RPF, SAYING THAT BRINGING
THE RPF INTO THE GOVERNMENT IS HIS ROLE. HE WAS
ESPECIALLY UPSET BY ACCUSATIONS COMING FROM MEMBERS
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OF THE MRND THAT HE WAS IN COMPLICITY WITH THE
PRESIDENT OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT AD INTENT ON
MAKING A "COUP D'ETAT". HE NOTED THAT THE
PRESIDENT'S ONLY ROLE IN PUTTING THE TRANSITION
INSTITUTIONS INTO PLACE IS TO ADMINISTER THE OATH OF
OFFICE. THEREFORE, HE CANNOT HOLD UP THE PROCESS BY
INSISTING ON RECONCILIATION INSIDE THE PARTIES AS A
PRECONDITION.
15. PRESIDENT HABYARIMANA MET WITH THE NONCE AND THE
WESTERN DIPLOMATS MORNING OF 1/3. FOLLOWING OUR
DEMARCHE, THE PRESIDENT REAFFIRMED HIS COMMITMENT TO
THE ARUSHA PEACE ACCORD FRAMEWORK AND INSISTED THAT
IT BE APPLIED TO THE LETTER. HE ASKED DIPLOMATS FOR
IDEAS ON WHAT HE SHOULD DO TO BREAK THE IMPASSE. HE
INSISTED THAT HE AND OTHERS COULD NOT INTERFERE IN
THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF THE PARTIES; NO ONE COULD
UNBLOCK THE PARTIES BUT THE PARTIES THEMSELVES. THE
DIPLOMATS REFRAINED FROM OFFERING CONCRETE
SUGGESTIONS. CHARGE SUGGESTED THAT THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY WOULD CONCLUDE THAT RWANDANS LACKED THE
WILL TO IMPLEMENT THE PEACE ACCORD IF THE DEADLOCK
WERE NOT BROKEN SOON. THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR
UNDERSCORED THIS POINT AND NOTED THAT IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT FOR US TO CONVINCE OUR GOVERNMENTS TO
CONTINUE SUPPORT IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL, IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, AND IN
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IF IT APPEARED TO THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT THE GOODWILL TO
IMPLEMENT THE ACCORD WAS LACKING.
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16. RPF PRESIDENT KANYARENGWE RECEIVED THE DIPLOMATS
MORNING OF 1/4. HE ARGUED AS HE HAD DONE IN A
PRIVATE MEETING WITH CHARGE THE PREVIOUS DAY THAT THE
PRESIDENT ALONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROBLEMS
CONFRONTING RWANDA. HE SAID THE ARUSHA ACCORD HAD
DEPRIVED THE PRESIDENT OF A BLOCKING THIRD IN THE
GOVERNMENT AND ACCUSED THE PRESIDENT OF PROVOKING THE
PROBLEMS IN THE PARTY IN ORDER TO CREATE DIVISIONS SO
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
HE COULD OBTAIN CONTROLLING BLOCKS IN BOTH THE
GOVERNMENT AND THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. HE SAID THE
RPF CANNOT ACCEPT HABYARIMANA BEING ABLE TO BLOCK
ACTIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE ASSEMBLY. HE SAID
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167630 041709Z /38
P 041530Z JAN 94
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5424
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
C ONFIDENTIALSECTION 04 OF 04 KIGALI 00032
YAOUNDE FOR DATT
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV, RW
UNCLASSIFIED
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SUBJECT: TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS: IMPASSE PERSISTS
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KIGALI 00032 04 OF 04 041709Z
THE RPF WANTS GUARANTEES THAT IT CAN ENTER A
GOVERNMENT WHERE IT CAN WORK AND NOT BE BLOCKED. HE
APPEALED TO THE DIPLOMATS FOR HELP IN HAVING THE
PRESIDENT RESPOND IN THE INTERESTS OF THE NATION
RATHER THAN IN HIS OWN PERSONAL INTEREST. HE CLAIMED
THAT THE PROBLEMS CONFRONTING RWANDA IS THE PROBLEM
OF ONE PERSON.
POSSIBLE OPENING
17. THE NONCE AND DIPLOMATS MET EVENING OF 1/3 WITH
SRSG BOOH BOOH AND GENERAL DALLAIRE TO REVIEW THE
STATE OF PLAY. GENERAL DALLAIRE REPORTED THAT A
POSSIBLE OPENING MAY HAVE APPEARED IN HIS MEETING
WITH PRESIDENTIAL CABINET DIRECTOR ENOCH RUHIGIRA.
RUHIGIRA REPORTEDLY SAID THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS
PREPARED TO TAKE THE OATH OF OFFICE AND THEN HAVE
PRIME MINISTER-DESIGNATE TWAGIRAMUNGU PROCEED TO
SWEAR IN WHATEVER LIST OF MINISTERS HE WANTED WITHOUT
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL AFTER THE PRESCRIBED THREE-DAY
WAITING PERIOD.
THE RPF
18. ON THE OTHER HAND, RPF CHAIRMAN KANYARENGWE TOLD
GENERAL DALLAIRE THAT HE PLNNED TO LEAVE FOR MULINDI
AFTERNOON OF 1/4 WITH SOME OF HIS CLOSE COLLABORATORS
IF THERE WAS NO MOVEMENT TOWARD INSTALLATION OF THE
TRANSITION INSTITUTIONS. HE ALSO MADE IT CLEAR THAT
HE WOULD NOT ACCEPT ANY LIST OF DEPUTIES OR
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GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS NEGOTIATED BY UNAMIR. HE ALSO
COMPLAINED TO THE GENERAL THAT THE RPF HAD WALKED
INTO A TRAP AND HE URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
TO IMPOSE A DATE FOR INSTALLATION OF THE TRANSITION
INSTITUTION.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
RISK OF VIOLENCE
19. AT THE MEETING WITH DIPLOMATS EVENING OF 1/3,
UNAMIR OFFICIALS EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT THE SITUATION
COULD EASILY DETERIORATE INTO RENEWED VIOLENCE.
GENERAL DALLAIRE PUT FORWARD A POSSIBLE SCENARIO
WHEREBY THE RPF WOULD RETURN TO MULINDI. HE SAID
TAKING BACK WOULD BE MUCH HARDER THAN BRINGING TO
KIGALI AND PREPARE TO RENEW HOSTILITIES. HE
SPECULATED THAT IF THIS SHOULD HAPPEN, THE RPF WOULD
WIN THE NEXT ENCOUNTER.
COMMENT
20. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF BLAME TO GO AROUND,
IT DOES SEEM THAT ONE OF THE KEY PROBLEMS IS THE
PRESIDENT'S UNWILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF
THE PEACE ACCORD WHEREBY HE CAN NO LONGER BE ASSURED
OF CONTROLLING THE GOVERNMENT AND THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY. LEADER
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