Citation
JOHANNESBURG, April 21 (Reuter) - A threat of political violence hangs
vulture-like over South Africa, but the inclusion of the separatist
Inkatha Freedom Party in next week's historic all-race elections has
reduced fears of major bloodletting.
Despite Inkatha's about-turn, political unrest that has killed up to
20,000 people in four years of apartheid reform, is unlikely to fall
substantially, although tensions have eased considerably in traditional
flashpoints.
Analysts say Inkatha's 11th-hour switch lowered a threat of direct
confrontation between its supporters and those of the African National
Congress, similar to clashes which caused 53 deaths in Johannesburg and
neighbouring townships on March 28.
But translating months, and in some cases years, of war-talk into peace
in the killing fields of Natal and on the volatile East Rand is an
awesome, perhaps impossible, task.
It's one thing talking peace at the leadership level but that has to
get through to the grassroots...more conflict should be expected in
KwaZulu-Natal and on the East Rand,
said Graeme Simpson, deputy
director of the Johannesburg-based Centre for the Study of Violence and
Reconciliation, referring to key flashpoints in a decade-long
ANC-Inkatha turf war.
Inkatha leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi, beginning his election campaign in
the KwaZului capital Ulundi said on Wednesday tensions had been
reduced, and that could reduce the violence.
Bill Sass, from the independent Institute for Defence Policy, echoed
Simpson's comments: The threat of direct confrontation between groups
has diminished, but I don't think political parties have (full) control
of their supporters...then there are still vengeance killings,
vendettas and the like,
said Sass.
He said South Africa could only be plunged into an Angola- like civil
war
if political leaders believed they had been cheated in the
elections ending three centuries of white domination in South Africa.
But he doubted this would happen.
If the leaders and the IEC (Independent Electoral Commission,
supervising the polls) agree the election has been free and fair, this
will not happen. If Nelson Mandela tells his supporters the ANC has
lost in the Western Cape (where the ruling National Party has a good
chance of winning), that will be accepted,
said Sass.
All the mainstream parties taking part in the polls have pledged to
accept the election result even if it went against them.
Waiting in the wings is the marginalised extreme white right, whose
hardline champion Eugene Terre Blanche, said on Wednesday the deal
leading to Inkatha's participation in the April 26-28 elections would
lead to more bloodshed.
We are not at all surprised at the pathetic capitulation by the Zulu
leadership to the Xhosa-led ANC...the Zulu and the Xhosa tribes will be
at each others' throats,
Terre Blanche's Afrikaner Resistance Movement
(AWB) said in a statement.
Hedging its bets, the AWB said South Africa could expect to become
another Rwanda even if it took another 20 years
.
Simpson said the AWB, which had pledged to fight for the rights of
Zulus, and other white extremists had been effectively checkmated
by
Inkatha's move and the participation in the polls of General Constand
Viljoen's Freedom Front, which gave a political outlet to right-wing
aspirations for a white homeland.
While the AWB may still have political support it is now unlikely this
will be translated into military action,
said Simpson.
He said, however, that the AWB and other extreme white rightwingers
still had the capacity to carry out acts of sabotage and random acts of
violence.
Both Sass and Simpson agreed that the extreme white right would become
more of a threat if the probably ANC-led national unity government
coming to power after the elections, tried to dismantle pro-apartheid
town councils in right-wing political strongholds.
They (the right) will probably sit back and see what happens after the
elections...if they see the government acting against their councils
they may act,
said Sass, a former South African army brigadier.
Political scientist Willie Breytenbach of Stellenbosch University said
of the white right-wing: Like the common cold, they're with us for
ever, and can be dangerous simply because they are so fanatical.
(c) Reuters Limited 1994
